Doctoral Dissertation Research: Spatial and Temporal Habitat Use of Elephants in the Serengeti Ecosystem: A Predictive Modeling Approach Using Multiscale Satellite Imagery

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The conservation of Africa's remaining elephant populations and their habitats has emerged as one of the continent's greatest wildlife management challenges. In savanna ecosystems in sub-Saharan African, elephants are one of the major sources of disturbance influencing vegetation dynamics and structure. In rural areas adjacent to protected areas, elephants are also major contributors to human-wildlife conflict. Both human-elephant conflict (HEC) and the impacts of elephants on woody vegetation have the potential to intensify as elephant populations recover after the intense poaching of the 1970s and 1980s, while former elephant range becomes increasingly restricted by human settlement. The 25,000 square kilometer Serengeti ecosystem in northern Tanzania and southern Kenya is one of the best studied savanna ecosystems in the world. However, very few studies on elephant population dynamics or ecology have been conducted in recent decades, which represents a significant knowledge gap given the importance of elephants in shaping this ecosystem, and the changes in climate, vegetation cover and human and elephant populations that have occurred during the past decades. This project will employ a combination of field measurements of vegetation structure, optical and radar remote sensing, and satellite tracking of elephants in the Serengeti ecosystem of Tanzania to map savanna structure at multiple spatial scales. These mapped variables will be used to predict elephant presence/absence (obtained from satellite telemetry) within quantitative distribution models, which will improve understanding of the following aspects of elephant ecology: 1) the habitat variables that influence elephant habitat selection within a savanna ecosystem, and the scales at which these operate; 2) the factors that predict elephant use of human-dominated landscapes, and thus HEC. Time-series radar and optical satellite images will be used to identify patterns of woody vegetation change in the study area. The observed trends in vegetation change will be evaluated against models of elephant habitat use, remote sensing derived fire histories, and climate data to better understand the role of elephants as agents of change in the Serengeti ecosystem.This study will use techniques novel to investigations of elephant habitat selection and their impacts on savanna woodland structure, making significant contributions both to the fields of savanna ecology and wildlife-habitat interactions. It will be one of the first studies to use remote sensing technology at landscape scales to address the role of elephants as ecosystem modifiers. The project will further contribute to a growing field of study focused around HEC, by providing a landscape-scale assessment of the factors contributing to elephant use of human-dominated areas, and will provide information essential to appropriate ecosystem management in one of Africa's best-known wildlife areas. Results of the study will enable protected area managers to incorporate information both on the impacts of a growing elephant population on savanna habitats, and on ecological correlates of HEC, into management and mitigation plans.This award is co-funded by NSF's Office of International Science and Engineering.