Predator-Prey Interactions in the Krill-centric Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem

生态系统的可变性被认为是生物生命史策略进化的主要制约因素。海洋极地生态系统表现出明显的季节和年际变化；众所周知，这些波动会影响到营养网的各个层面，尤其是顶级捕食者。然而，记录单独标记动物的繁殖和生存的长期研究很少，同时监测几个物种的研究就更少了。本研究将探讨扁舌企鹅的繁殖、觅食和人口统计参数如何受到环境变化的影响。自1976年以来，人们在南极半岛地区的金钟湾对海扁企鹅、帽带企鹅和巴布亚企鹅（Pygoscelis adeliae，南极企鹅和巴布亚企鹅）进行了研究。这三种企鹅在近30年间呈现出不同的数量变化趋势：阿氏和帽带企鹅数量下降了70%以上，而巴布亚企鹅数量保持稳定。这项研究将继续收集这些企鹅物种的长期生活史数据，并将扩大最近关于这三种企鹅在关键冬季的分布和营养相互作用的工作。将使用多元统计技术和种群动态模型的组合来评估有关环境变化与繁殖生物学和觅食生态学变化的假设，并检查这些参数的变化如何影响种群。此外，这项研究将有助于验证以生态系统为基础的渔业管理模型，将捕食者数据与磷虾和气候数据结合起来，并考虑到这些参数的长期时间变化。作为南极海洋生物资源养护委员会（CCAMLR）一个工作组的成员，该项目的pi对有关南大洋渔业政策的建议有直接的科学投入。这项研究将用于参数化和测试模型，这些模型将用于南极半岛周围磷虾渔业的管理决策。该研究还将为年轻研究人员提供专业培训，并将支持斯克里普斯海洋学研究所的一名博士候选人。

Variability in ecosystems is hypothesized to be a major constraint in the evolution of life history tactics of organisms. Marine polar ecosystems exhibit pronounced seasonal and interannual variability; these fluctuations are known to affect all levels of the trophic web, especially top predators. Few long-term studies recording reproduction and survival of individually marked animals exist, however, and studies that monitor several species simultaneously are even rarer. The proposed research will examine how reproductive, foraging and demography parameters of Pygoscelis penguins are affected by environmental variability. Adélie, chinstrap, and gentoo penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae, P. antarctica and P. papua) have been studied at Admiralty Bay, in the Antarctic Peninsula region, since 1976. These three species exhibited different population trends over the last 3 decades: Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations declined by over 70% in numbers while gentoo penguin populations remained stable. This study will continue to collect long-term life history data on these penguin species and will expand recent work on the distribution and trophic interactions among the three species during the critical winter period. A combination of multivariate statistical techniques and population dynamics models will be used to evaluate hypotheses relating environmental variation to changes in breeding biology and foraging ecology and to examine how variations in these parameters affect populations. Further, this research will assist in the validation of models for fisheries management that are ecosystem based, incorporating predator data with krill and climate data, and that take into account long-term temporal variability in these parameters. As members of a working group to the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) the PIs for this project have direct scientific input regarding recommendations on fisheries policy in the Southern Ocean. This research will be used to parameterize and test models that will be used in management decisions regarding the krill fishery around the Antarctic Peninsula. The study will also provide professional training to young researchers and will support a PhD candidate at Scripps Institute of Oceanography.