Predator-Prey Interactions in the Krill-centric Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem

生态系统的变异性被认为是生物生活史策略进化的主要制约因素。海洋极地生态系统表现出明显的季节性和年际变化;已知这些波动会影响各级营养网，特别是顶级捕食者。然而，很少有长期的研究记录个别标记的动物的繁殖和生存，同时监测几个物种的研究就更少了。拟议中的研究将探讨如何生殖，觅食和Pygoscelis企鹅的人口统计学参数受到环境变化的影响。自1976年以来，人们一直在南极半岛地区的金钟湾对阿德利企鹅、帽带企鹅和巴布亚企鹅进行研究。在过去的30年里，这三个物种表现出不同的人口趋势：阿德利企鹅和帽带企鹅的数量下降了70%以上，而巴布亚企鹅的数量保持稳定。这项研究将继续收集这些企鹅物种的长期生活史数据，并将扩大最近的工作在关键的冬季期间的分布和营养相互作用的三个物种。多元统计技术和人口动态模型相结合，将被用来评估有关环境变化的假设，在育种生物学和觅食生态学的变化，并研究这些参数的变化如何影响人口。此外，这项研究将有助于验证基于生态系统的渔业管理模式，将捕食者数据与磷虾和气候数据结合起来，并考虑到这些参数的长期时间变化。作为南极海洋生物资源保护委员会（南极海生委）工作组的成员，该项目的主要研究员对有关南大洋渔业政策的建议有直接的科学投入。这项研究将用于参数化和测试模型，将用于管理决策有关南极半岛周围的磷虾渔业。这项研究还将为年轻的研究人员提供专业培训，并将支持斯克里普斯海洋学研究所的一名博士候选人。

Variability in ecosystems is hypothesized to be a major constraint in the evolution of life history tactics of organisms. Marine polar ecosystems exhibit pronounced seasonal and interannual variability; these fluctuations are known to affect all levels of the trophic web, especially top predators. Few long-term studies recording reproduction and survival of individually marked animals exist, however, and studies that monitor several species simultaneously are even rarer. The proposed research will examine how reproductive, foraging and demography parameters of Pygoscelis penguins are affected by environmental variability. Adélie, chinstrap, and gentoo penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae, P. antarctica and P. papua) have been studied at Admiralty Bay, in the Antarctic Peninsula region, since 1976. These three species exhibited different population trends over the last 3 decades: Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations declined by over 70% in numbers while gentoo penguin populations remained stable. This study will continue to collect long-term life history data on these penguin species and will expand recent work on the distribution and trophic interactions among the three species during the critical winter period. A combination of multivariate statistical techniques and population dynamics models will be used to evaluate hypotheses relating environmental variation to changes in breeding biology and foraging ecology and to examine how variations in these parameters affect populations. Further, this research will assist in the validation of models for fisheries management that are ecosystem based, incorporating predator data with krill and climate data, and that take into account long-term temporal variability in these parameters. As members of a working group to the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) the PIs for this project have direct scientific input regarding recommendations on fisheries policy in the Southern Ocean. This research will be used to parameterize and test models that will be used in management decisions regarding the krill fishery around the Antarctic Peninsula. The study will also provide professional training to young researchers and will support a PhD candidate at Scripps Institute of Oceanography.