Habitat Fragmentation: Predicting Long Term Extinction Dynamics from Transient Dynamics and Species Traits

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The loss and fragmentation of habitat is a primary cause of species extinction and loss of biodiversity. However, there are few studies of the long-term effects of a direct experiment in which habitat has been fragmented at the large spatial scales that typify the effects of land use on the landscape; such experiments provide direct tests of the mechanisms that are thought to make species more or less tolerant of habitat fragmentation. Short-term responses to experimental habitat fragmentation are more commonly documented, but these may be transient and so may not predict fates of species in the longer term. How many species that initially decline eventually go extinct? Do species that do not respond initially to habitat fragmentation go extinct in the longer term? This project will answer these questions in the Wog Wog fragmentation experiment (Australia), the longest running large-scale fragmentation experiment in temperate forest. Existing data from the first five years of the experiment will be combined with a matching series of new data to be collected now, 23-26 years after fragmentation, to determine whether the initial transient dynamics of beetle species predict their fates in the long term and to test which characteristics predict vulnerability or robustness to environmental habitat change. Habitat loss and fragmentation continue at an accelerating rate and account for most biodiversity loss. Understanding their roles as drivers of extinction is of increasing importance to conservation and land management. The long-running, large-scale Wog Wog experiment provides a unique opportunity to understand why and how species go extinct, and which species are most at risk. A technician, a graduate student, and six undergraduates will receive interdisciplinary training in biology and mathematics through participation in this project, and outreach materials will be developed for high school students.