CAREER: Assessing the Role of Land Surface Processes on the Climatic Changes in the Heavy Rain and Convection over the Indian Monsoon Region

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The study seeks to test the hypothesis that the land surface feedback is an important modulator of the heavy rains and convection climatology over the Indian monsoon region; and that the land use change has significantly contributed to the changes in the heavy rainfall climatology over the Indian monsoon region in recent decades. The project will address the following outstanding questions: (i) What is the impact of land surface processes on convection and heavy rainfall over the Indian monsoon region? (ii) Is there a causal control of local land surface feedback on the Indian monsoon heavy rainfall climatology?, and, What aspects of this land use feedback can be detected from current observations, models, and reanalysis products? These questions seek to investigate if the impact of land surface processes can be statistically detected from multidecadal analysis and observations; and what are the mechanisms by which land surface affects regional convection and heavy rains over the Indian monsoon region. Using multidecadal in situ and remote sensed observations, and results from land data assimilation system and coupled land atmosphere models, this project will yield an improved definition, attribution and prediction of the Indian Monsoon rainfall changes. It will also improve the understanding of the mechanisms of monsoonal convective processes and its predictability, including the impacts of land use land cover change and land surface variability. This will enable knowledge that is transformative to weather and climate models and helps develop a more complete understanding of the climate change processes over the Indian monsoon region. As a broader impact, using the research findings, educational material will be developed for general public, undergraduates, and advanced graduate students. The research will directly contribute towards the training of graduate students and postdoctoral researchers. Working with middle school teachers, project findings will be used to develop middle school classroom monsoon activities. These activities will be transformed to a media content website, as well as in 4H handbooks, state fair activities, and for visualization and student activities digital libraries. Results of this work will be actively disseminated through participation at professional annual meetings and conferences, and in peer-reviewed journals, and popular media.