CAREER: Assessing the Role of Land Surface Processes on the Climatic Changes in the Heavy Rain and Convection over the Indian Monsoon Region

该研究试图验证这样一种假设，即陆面反馈是印度季风区暴雨和对流气候学的重要调节器，以及土地利用变化对印度季风区近几十年来暴雨气候学的变化有显著贡献。该项目将解决下列悬而未决的问题：(1)陆地表面过程对印度季风区的对流和暴雨有何影响？(Ii)当地陆地表面反馈对印度季风强降雨气候学的影响是否存在因果控制？从目前的观测、模型和再分析产品中可以检测到这种土地利用反馈的哪些方面？这些问题试图调查是否可以从数十年的分析和观测中从统计上检测到陆地表面过程的影响；以及陆地表面影响印度季风区的区域对流和暴雨的机制是什么。利用数十年的现场和遥感观测，以及陆地数据同化系统和耦合陆地大气模式的结果，该项目将改进对印度季风降水变化的定义、归属和预测。它还将增进对季风对流过程机制及其可预测性的了解，包括土地利用、土地覆盖变化和地表变异性的影响。这将使对天气和气候模型具有变革性的知识成为可能，并有助于更全面地了解印度季风区的气候变化过程。作为更广泛的影响，利用研究成果，将为普通公众、本科生和高级研究生开发教育材料。这项研究将直接有助于研究生和博士后研究人员的培养。与中学教师合作，项目成果将用于开展中学课堂季风活动。这些活动将转变为媒体内容网站，以及4H手册、州博览会活动、可视化和学生活动数字图书馆。这项工作的成果将通过参加专业年度会议、同行评议的期刊和大众媒体积极传播。

The study seeks to test the hypothesis that the land surface feedback is an important modulator of the heavy rains and convection climatology over the Indian monsoon region; and that the land use change has significantly contributed to the changes in the heavy rainfall climatology over the Indian monsoon region in recent decades. The project will address the following outstanding questions: (i) What is the impact of land surface processes on convection and heavy rainfall over the Indian monsoon region? (ii) Is there a causal control of local land surface feedback on the Indian monsoon heavy rainfall climatology?, and, What aspects of this land use feedback can be detected from current observations, models, and reanalysis products? These questions seek to investigate if the impact of land surface processes can be statistically detected from multidecadal analysis and observations; and what are the mechanisms by which land surface affects regional convection and heavy rains over the Indian monsoon region. Using multidecadal in situ and remote sensed observations, and results from land data assimilation system and coupled land atmosphere models, this project will yield an improved definition, attribution and prediction of the Indian Monsoon rainfall changes. It will also improve the understanding of the mechanisms of monsoonal convective processes and its predictability, including the impacts of land use land cover change and land surface variability. This will enable knowledge that is transformative to weather and climate models and helps develop a more complete understanding of the climate change processes over the Indian monsoon region. As a broader impact, using the research findings, educational material will be developed for general public, undergraduates, and advanced graduate students. The research will directly contribute towards the training of graduate students and postdoctoral researchers. Working with middle school teachers, project findings will be used to develop middle school classroom monsoon activities. These activities will be transformed to a media content website, as well as in 4H handbooks, state fair activities, and for visualization and student activities digital libraries. Results of this work will be actively disseminated through participation at professional annual meetings and conferences, and in peer-reviewed journals, and popular media.