RAPID: 2018 Hurricane Season -- Assessing the Role of Antecedent Land State on Hurricane Post-landfall Rainfall

飓风佛罗伦萨给美国东部部分地区带来了异常多的降雨，特别是在沿海的北卡罗来纳州。 理论上，潮湿的土地条件可以提供维持登陆飓风和热带风暴的水分反馈。 研究小组将收集数据并进行分析，以确定这种机制是否在佛罗伦萨的发展中发挥了作用，以及它如何影响其他热带系统。 这项研究的最终目标是改善对登陆飓风及其造成的各种危害的预测。 该项目还将帮助培训下一代科学家，这一快速反应奖将寻求确定热带气旋登陆期间陆地表面变化对降雨特征的作用。 飓风佛罗伦萨将作为一个案例研究，以解决所谓的“棕色海洋效应”，即湿地提供水分反馈，以维持登陆的热带系统。 在这个项目中，研究人员将在佛罗伦萨时间段内对降雨和土地状况进行观测分析，对登陆前和登陆后的土地状况进行综合，重点关注水分输送和降雨/水收支，使用WRF进行数值实验，以检验关于登陆前土地状况在影响佛罗伦萨内陆降雨方面的作用的假设，并将飓风佛罗伦萨与其他类似系统进行比较，以帮助完善所涉及的概念过程。 该项目的时间敏感性在于数据集的收集和分析分发给科学界和国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的合作者。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并被认为值得通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估来支持。

Hurricane Florence dropped an extraordinary amount of rainfall on parts of the eastern United States, particularly in coastal North Carolina. It has been theorized that wet land conditions can provide a moisture feedback that sustains landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms. The research team will collect data and perform analyses to determine whether this mechanism played a role in the progression of Florence and how it may impact other tropical systems. The end goal of the research is to improve the forecasts of landfalling hurricanes and the various hazards they pose. The project will also help to train the next generation of scientists.This rapid-response award will seek to determine the role of land-surface change during a tropical cyclone landfall on resultant rainfall characteristics. Hurricane Florence will serve as a case study to address the so-called "Brown Ocean Effect" where wet land provides moisture feedback to sustain landfalling tropical systems. In this project, the researchers will develop an observational analysis of rainfall and land state during the Florence time period, develop a synthesis of the antecedent and post-landfall land conditions with a focus on the moisture transport and rainfall/water budget, conduct numerical experiments using WRF to test the hypothesis regarding the role of antecedent land state in affecting the inland rainfall from Florence, and compare Hurricane Florence to other similar systems to help refine the conceptual processes involved. The time-sensitivity of the project lies with the collection of datasets and the distribution of analyses to the scientific community and collaborators from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.