RAPID: 2018 Hurricane Season -- Assessing the Role of Antecedent Land State on Hurricane Post-landfall Rainfall

飓风佛罗伦萨给美国东部部分地区带来了非同寻常的降雨量，特别是在北卡罗来纳州沿海地区。理论上认为，湿润的陆地条件可以提供水分反馈，从而维持登陆的飓风和热带风暴。研究小组将收集数据并进行分析，以确定这一机制是否在佛罗伦萨的发展过程中发挥了作用，以及它可能如何影响其他热带系统。这项研究的最终目标是改进对登陆飓风及其构成的各种危险的预测。该项目还将有助于培训下一代科学家。这一快速反应奖将寻求确定热带气旋登陆期间地表变化对由此产生的降雨特征所起的作用。飓风佛罗伦萨将作为一个案例研究，以解决所谓的“棕海效应”，即湿润的陆地提供水分反馈，以维持登陆的热带系统。在这个项目中，研究人员将对佛罗伦萨时段的降雨和陆地状况进行观测分析，对登陆前和登陆后的陆地状况进行综合，重点放在水分输送和降雨/水收支上，利用世界气候基金进行数值试验，以检验关于先前陆地状况在影响佛罗伦萨内陆降雨中的作用的假设，并将飓风佛罗伦萨与其他类似系统进行比较，以帮助完善涉及的概念过程。该项目的时间敏感性在于收集数据集，并将分析分发给科学界和美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)的合作者。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Hurricane Florence dropped an extraordinary amount of rainfall on parts of the eastern United States, particularly in coastal North Carolina. It has been theorized that wet land conditions can provide a moisture feedback that sustains landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms. The research team will collect data and perform analyses to determine whether this mechanism played a role in the progression of Florence and how it may impact other tropical systems. The end goal of the research is to improve the forecasts of landfalling hurricanes and the various hazards they pose. The project will also help to train the next generation of scientists.This rapid-response award will seek to determine the role of land-surface change during a tropical cyclone landfall on resultant rainfall characteristics. Hurricane Florence will serve as a case study to address the so-called "Brown Ocean Effect" where wet land provides moisture feedback to sustain landfalling tropical systems. In this project, the researchers will develop an observational analysis of rainfall and land state during the Florence time period, develop a synthesis of the antecedent and post-landfall land conditions with a focus on the moisture transport and rainfall/water budget, conduct numerical experiments using WRF to test the hypothesis regarding the role of antecedent land state in affecting the inland rainfall from Florence, and compare Hurricane Florence to other similar systems to help refine the conceptual processes involved. The time-sensitivity of the project lies with the collection of datasets and the distribution of analyses to the scientific community and collaborators from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.