Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy, and Trade Policy

该提案由三部分组成。第一部分考察了粘价DSGE开放经济模型中的实际汇率行为。特别是，该研究提出揭示汇率对未来基本面新闻作出强烈反应的模型的一般属性。在这些模型中，实际汇率可以求解为当前和预期的未来实际和货币扰动的现值。然而，在一些标准模型中，当政策稳定通胀时，对未来预期基本面的影响很低。在实际汇率不是各国相对通货膨胀率的唯一决定因素的模型中，似乎允许预期的未来基本面以与实证结果一致的方式影响汇率。研究的第二部分将分析汇率具有前瞻性时的最优货币政策。特别是，它将询问，在实际汇率对新闻做出强烈反应的环境下，标准的通胀目标制是否最佳，或者接近最佳。该提案的第三部分是在粘性名义价格下研究关税和贸易政策。它将在不同的名义价格设定假设下讨论关税的积极影响。拟议的研究将解决汇率政策类似于保护主义贸易政策的问题。它还将研究粘性价格下的最优关税政策。提出的工作的三个主要领域都涉及开放经济的应用一般均衡建模，并受到实证工作的激励。这类工作最终将产生更广泛的影响，有助于更好地理解宏观经济的运作，从而更好地制定政策。该提案的第二和第三部分与政策问题直接相关，研究名义价格具有粘性的经济体的货币政策和贸易政策。

The proposal has three parts. The first examines real exchange rate behavior in sticky-price DSGE open-economy models. In particular, the research proposes to uncover the general attributes of models in which exchange rates react strongly to news about future fundamentals. In these models, the real exchange rate can be solved as a present value of current and expected future disturbances, real and monetary. In some standard models, however, when policy stabilizes inflation, the weight on future expected fundamentals is low. Models in which the real exchange rate is not the sole determinant of relative inflation rates across countries appear to allow scope for expected future fundamentals to influence exchange rates in a way that is consistent with empirical findings. The second part of the research will analyze optimal monetary policy when the exchange rate is forward looking. In particular, it will ask whether standard inflation-targeting prescriptions are optimal, or nearly so, in an environment in which real exchange rates react strongly to news. The third part of the proposal is to examine tariffs and trade policy under sticky nominal prices. It will address the positive effects of tariffs under different assumptions of how nominal prices are set. The proposed research will address the sense in which exchange-rate policy is analogous to protectionist trade policies. It will also examine optimal tariff policy under sticky prices.The three major areas of proposed work all involve applied general equilibrium modeling of open economies and are motivated by empirical work. Any work such as this will ultimately have broader impact in terms of promoting better understanding of the workings of the macroeconomy, and hence better policy making. The second and third parts of the proposal are directly related to policy questions, examining monetary policy and trade policy in economies with sticky nominal prices.