Collaborative Research: Analysis and Modeling of Traffic Instabilities in Congested Traffic

该奖项是根据2009年美国复苏和再投资法案（公法111-5）资助的。本合作研究的主要目标是：(1)更好地理解变道和车辆跟随的交互作用；(2)量化它们对振荡的影响；(3)建立一个精确预测振荡演变的数学模拟模型。交通振荡是在拥挤的交通中出现的走走停停的驾驶动作。这些振荡逆着交通流量传播，通常随着它们在空间上的传播而增长。长期以来，它们一直被认为是汽车跟随行为不稳定的结果，并被严格地建模。然而，最近的实证研究完善了这一长期被接受的观点，并表明变道机动是振荡形成和增长的主要触发因素，而汽车跟随效应进一步影响了振荡的增长。变道和车辆跟随的影响已经定性地说明了，但还有待详细地量化。通过最近数据收集和处理技术的发展，将使用高分辨率的车辆轨迹数据，对变道和跟随的单个车辆行为进行微观分析。此外，该研究将加深对不同车辆类别和道路特征对空间振荡演化行为的影响的理解。实证研究结果将提供一个框架，以开发一个简单，简约的模型与物理上有意义的参数，同时纳入必要的因素。该模型将通过实证观察得到验证，这将是交通理论领域难得的贡献。本文的研究结果将有助于更好地理解和建立更有效的拥堵交通预测模型。本研究解决了一个在城市社会中根深蒂固的与拥堵相关的关键问题。振荡对环境和安全有负面影响，因为它们增加了油耗、排放和驾驶不适。通过更好地理解这些现象和描述它们的模型，本研究可能会促进交通流和管理策略的各种研究。此外，本研究的结果将促进包括振荡驾驶在内的更好的安全和环境影响模型的发展。研究活动将通过pi目前正在开发的新课程以及诸如期刊出版物和会议等传统场所转移。这个项目将涉及两名博士生，其中一名是女学生。这些pi还将通过亚利桑那州立大学的富尔顿本科生研究计划招募并指导一名本科生。

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).The primary objectives of this collaborative research study are to 1) better understand the interactive roles played by lane-changing and car-following, 2) quantify their effects on oscillations, and 3) develop a mathematical simulation model that accurately predicts the evolution of oscillations. Traffic oscillations are stop-and-go driving motions that arise in congested traffic. These oscillations propagate against traffic flow and typically grow as they propagate over space. They have long been thought and modeled strictly as a result of instabilities in car-following behavior. However, recent empirical studies have refined this long-accepted belief and suggest that lane-changing maneuvers are primary triggers for oscillations - formations and growths and that car-following effects further impact the growth of oscillations. The effects of lane-changing and car-following have been illustrated qualitatively and are yet to be quantified in detail. Microscopic analyses of individual vehicle behavior of lane-changing and car-following will be performed using high-resolution vehicle trajectory data that are made available by a recent development in data collection and processing techniques. Furthermore, this study will enhance understanding on the effects of heterogeneous traffic due to different vehicle classes and roadway characteristics on the evolutionary behavior of oscillations in space. The empirical findings will provide a framework to develop a simple, parsimonious model with physically meaningful parameters while incorporating the necessary factors. The model will be validated with empirical observation, which will be a rare contribution to the field of traffic theory. The outcome of this research will be a better understanding and a more effective traffic forecasting model of congested traffic.This study addresses one of the key congestion-related problems deeply rooted in urban society. Oscillations have a negative impact on environment and safety, as they increase fuel consumption, emissions and driving discomfort. By providing a better understanding of the phenomena and a model to describe them, this study will likely prompt various researches in traffic flow and management strategies. Furthermore, the results from this study will promote development of better models for safety and environmental impacts which incorporate oscillatory driving. The research activities will be transferred through new courses which the PIs are currently developing as well as conventional venues such as journal publications and conferences. This project will involve two Ph.D. students, one of which is a female student. The PIs will also recruit and mentor an undergraduate student through Arizona State University's Fulton Undergraduate Research Initiative.