Collaborative Research: P2C2--Reconstructing North Pacific Climate Variability Using a Multi-Millennial Tree-Ring Resource for Glacier Bay, Alaska

提供了资金，以便利用冰川湾国家公园和保护区的现有树轮样本和新样本，编制关于过去10 000年来北太平洋沿岸和北美北部过去气候和冰川活动的数千年树轮记录。科学目标是更好地了解北太平洋气候变化，以帮助在一年到几十年的时间尺度上预测北美西部的气候。研究人员将提出一系列假设来指导他们的研究，即：1)相对于过去几千年的全新世北太平洋热史，最近一段时间的人为变化是独特的；2)多年代际和更长期的北太平洋气候变化并不反映真实的动力模式，而是不同变化模式(例如~20年和50年周期)相互作用的结果，这些变化可以结合在一起产生这种变化；3)过去几千年来，内部(北太平洋)和外部(如太阳)强迫都对北太平洋气候产生了重大影响；4)北太平洋海气气候变化具有千禧年尺度的节律；5)北太平洋和热带气候之间在气候变化和其他特征方面存在着强有力的联系，反映了大气-海洋变化的耦合模式。

Funding is provided to develop a multi-millennial tree-ring record of past climate and glacier activity over the last 10,000 years for the North Pacific Rim and northern North America by using existing tree-ring samples and new samples from Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve. The scientific goal is to develop a greater understanding of North Pacific climate variability to aid efforts in predicting western North American climate on annual to multi-decadal time scales.The researchers will pursue a series of hypotheses to guide their research, namely: 1) the recent period of anthropogenic change has been unique relative to the Holocene North Pacific thermal history of the past several millennia; 2) multi-decadal and longer-term North Pacific climate variability does not reflect a true dynamical mode, but instead results from the interaction of different modes of variation (e.g. ~20 and 50 year cycles) that can combine to produce such shifts; 3) both internal (North Pacific) and external (e.g. solar) forcings have significantly impacted North Pacific climate over the past several millennia; 4) there is a millennial-scale rhythm to North Pacific ocean-atmosphere climate variability; and 5) robust linkages exist between North Pacific and tropical climate with regards to regime shifts and other features, reflecting coupled atmosphere-ocean modes of variability.The broader impacts involve supporting undergraduate and graduate students as well as providing new data on a region considered to be a bellwether of changing climate.