Collaborative Research: P2C2--Assessing Climate and Stochastic Forcing of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Past Millennium

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This project aims to improve model predictions of tropical cyclones in coastal North America by combining past records of Atlantic hurricanes with tropical cyclone models of the North Atlantic. The U.S. coastal communities are susceptible to tropical cyclone (TC) damages, with urban infrastructure that is ill-equipped for TC-induced flooding. Recent active Atlantic hurricane seasons (i.e., 2020) have cast justified attention on the role of climate change in altering TCs in the North Atlantic. However, a robust analysis of the influence of longer-time scale climate variability on the frequency and trajectories of TC is hindered by the short observation datasets (~ 50 years available from satellite records). Past records of hurricanes (proxy records) can extend the record of TC statistics to thousands of years beyond observational data. But these records tend to capture only close-moving and intense storms which make it difficult to ascertain whether past records of hurricanes are related to climate variability or randomness (stochasticity). Therefore, this project proposes to rigorously assess uncertainties associated with past hurricane records (paleohurricanes) by analyzing existing proxies of TCs from the North Atlantic and comparing them to new TC model simulations of the past millennium. These data-model comparisons will then be used to both investigate the sensitivity of Atlantic TCs to changing climate drivers and feedbacks in a model world, and to test the ability of individual and networks of paleohurricane records in capturing TC climate in the real world. The potential Broader Impacts include a better understanding of the processes driving changes in tropical cyclones activity in the Atlantic and a potential improvement of the ability to predict future tropical cyclones risk for coastal communitiesSpecifically, the researchers will: 1) Generate North Atlantic TC datasets spanning multiple model simulations of the last millennium; 2) Investigate relationships between the past response of modeled TCs and climatic drivers (such as the North Atlantic Subtropical High and El Niño Southern Oscillation); 3) Integrate new TC simulations with existing records of past hurricanes spanning the past millennium to quantify the climate signal captured in individual records compared to local noise; and 4) Develop methodology for combining reconstructions of past hurricanes to maximize regional-to-basin-wide climate signal. This project will potentially expand the dataset of landfalling TCs to better quantify local risks and robustly assess the role for climate variability in driving TC activity. A storm dataset spanning the last 1000 years will be developed and available to the broader scientific community and stakeholders. This project will provide research experience and support for two early-career scientists, including research support for one postdoctoral fellow and undergraduate students at Rice University. The researchers will leverage undergraduate summer research projects through Rice’s anticipated 2020-2022 REU which recruits historically black college and community college students. Further, the researchers at Rice University will work with leaders of Girl Scouts San Jacinto Council to plan events focused on hurricane science and preparedness, including sessions that will engage the participants of the Girl Scout Global Leadership Conference, attended by 250 scouts and 150 troop leaders. The project will also support summer research experiences for high school students through collaboration with the Rice Design, Connect, Create (DCC). The 4-week summer program engages 35-60 minority participants in applied physics including climate, but also establishes networks and mentoring for participants across critical transitions in STEM career pathways – from high school, to graduate school, and beyond – known to be critical to retaining scientists in STEM fields. The outcome of this research project will be disseminated to thousands of students in Houston public schools through the Rice Research Experience for Teachers (RET) and Applied Math Program (AMP!).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.