Collaborative Research: P2C2--Assessing Climate and Stochastic Forcing of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Past Millennium

该项目旨在通过将过去的大西洋飓风记录与北大西洋热带气旋模型相结合，改进对北美沿海热带气旋的模型预测。美国沿海社区容易受到热带气旋（TC）的破坏，城市基础设施装备不足，无法应对由TC引发的洪水。最近活跃的大西洋飓风季节（即2020年）引起了人们对气候变化在改变北大西洋tc中的作用的合理关注。然而，较长时间尺度气候变率对TC频率和轨迹的影响的可靠分析受到较短观测数据集（从卫星记录可获得的~ 50年）的阻碍。过去的飓风记录（代理记录）可以将TC统计记录扩展到数千年的观测数据之外。但是这些记录往往只记录近距离移动和强烈的风暴，这使得很难确定过去的飓风记录是否与气候变化或随机性有关。因此，本项目建议通过分析北大西洋现有的TC代用物，并将其与过去一千年的新TC模式模拟结果进行比较，严格评估与过去飓风记录（古飓风）相关的不确定性。然后，这些数据模型比较将用于在模型世界中调查大西洋TC对变化的气候驱动因素和反馈的敏感性，并用于测试个人和古飓风记录网络在真实世界中捕捉TC气候的能力。潜在的更广泛的影响包括更好地理解大西洋热带气旋活动变化的驱动过程，以及预测沿海社区未来热带气旋风险的能力的潜在改进。具体而言，研究人员将：1)生成跨越过去千年多个模式模拟的北大西洋TC数据集；2)研究模拟tc过去响应与气候驱动因子（如北大西洋副热带高压和El Niño南方涛动）的关系；3)将新的TC模拟与过去一千年的现有飓风记录相结合，将单个记录中捕获的气候信号与当地噪声进行量化；4)开发方法，结合过去飓风的重建，以最大限度地提高区域到整个流域的气候信号。该项目将有可能扩大登陆TC的数据集，以更好地量化当地风险，并可靠地评估气候变率在驱动TC活动中的作用。将开发一个跨越过去1000年的风暴数据集，供更广泛的科学界和利益相关者使用。该项目将为两名早期职业科学家提供研究经验和支持，包括为莱斯大学的一名博士后和本科生提供研究支持。研究人员将通过莱斯大学预计的2020-2022年REU招募历史上的黑人大学和社区大学学生，利用本科生暑期研究项目。此外，莱斯大学的研究人员将与女童子军圣哈辛托理事会的领导人合作，策划以飓风科学和备灾为重点的活动，包括由250名女童子军和150名部队领导人参加的女童子军全球领导会议的与会者参加的会议。该项目还将通过与Rice Design， Connect, Create （DCC）合作，为高中生提供暑期研究体验。这个为期4周的暑期项目吸引了35-60名应用物理学（包括气候）的少数族裔参与者，但也为参与者建立了网络和指导，帮助他们跨越STEM职业道路的关键转变——从高中到研究生院，甚至更高——众所周知，这对留住STEM领域的科学家至关重要。这项研究项目的成果将通过赖斯教师研究经验（RET）和应用数学计划（AMP!）传播给休斯顿公立学校的数千名学生。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project aims to improve model predictions of tropical cyclones in coastal North America by combining past records of Atlantic hurricanes with tropical cyclone models of the North Atlantic. The U.S. coastal communities are susceptible to tropical cyclone (TC) damages, with urban infrastructure that is ill-equipped for TC-induced flooding. Recent active Atlantic hurricane seasons (i.e., 2020) have cast justified attention on the role of climate change in altering TCs in the North Atlantic. However, a robust analysis of the influence of longer-time scale climate variability on the frequency and trajectories of TC is hindered by the short observation datasets (~ 50 years available from satellite records). Past records of hurricanes (proxy records) can extend the record of TC statistics to thousands of years beyond observational data. But these records tend to capture only close-moving and intense storms which make it difficult to ascertain whether past records of hurricanes are related to climate variability or randomness (stochasticity). Therefore, this project proposes to rigorously assess uncertainties associated with past hurricane records (paleohurricanes) by analyzing existing proxies of TCs from the North Atlantic and comparing them to new TC model simulations of the past millennium. These data-model comparisons will then be used to both investigate the sensitivity of Atlantic TCs to changing climate drivers and feedbacks in a model world, and to test the ability of individual and networks of paleohurricane records in capturing TC climate in the real world. The potential Broader Impacts include a better understanding of the processes driving changes in tropical cyclones activity in the Atlantic and a potential improvement of the ability to predict future tropical cyclones risk for coastal communitiesSpecifically, the researchers will: 1) Generate North Atlantic TC datasets spanning multiple model simulations of the last millennium; 2) Investigate relationships between the past response of modeled TCs and climatic drivers (such as the North Atlantic Subtropical High and El Niño Southern Oscillation); 3) Integrate new TC simulations with existing records of past hurricanes spanning the past millennium to quantify the climate signal captured in individual records compared to local noise; and 4) Develop methodology for combining reconstructions of past hurricanes to maximize regional-to-basin-wide climate signal. This project will potentially expand the dataset of landfalling TCs to better quantify local risks and robustly assess the role for climate variability in driving TC activity. A storm dataset spanning the last 1000 years will be developed and available to the broader scientific community and stakeholders. This project will provide research experience and support for two early-career scientists, including research support for one postdoctoral fellow and undergraduate students at Rice University. The researchers will leverage undergraduate summer research projects through Rice’s anticipated 2020-2022 REU which recruits historically black college and community college students. Further, the researchers at Rice University will work with leaders of Girl Scouts San Jacinto Council to plan events focused on hurricane science and preparedness, including sessions that will engage the participants of the Girl Scout Global Leadership Conference, attended by 250 scouts and 150 troop leaders. The project will also support summer research experiences for high school students through collaboration with the Rice Design, Connect, Create (DCC). The 4-week summer program engages 35-60 minority participants in applied physics including climate, but also establishes networks and mentoring for participants across critical transitions in STEM career pathways – from high school, to graduate school, and beyond – known to be critical to retaining scientists in STEM fields. The outcome of this research project will be disseminated to thousands of students in Houston public schools through the Rice Research Experience for Teachers (RET) and Applied Math Program (AMP!).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.