GEM: Inner Radiation Belt Data Assimilation

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This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).This project will determine how short-term dynamics influences the long-term behavior of Earth's inner radiation belt (Van Allen belt). An existing physics based inner radiation belt model developed under a previous NSF Space Weather award will be the starting point of the analysis. Fifteen (15) years of in-situ observations of solar proton trapping and geomagnetic storm-associated losses will be incorporated into the into model of the inner belt using data assimilation techniques. This will comprehensively determine the trapping and loss signatures of the particles as functions of energy, pitch angle, radial distance from the Earth, and geomagnetic and solar wind parameters. Multivariate statistical techniques will be applied to this solar-cycle reanalysis to understand how short-term, inner belt space weather leads to long-term, inner belt climate. This combination of simulations, observations, and data-assimilation statistical techniques has never been applied to the inner belt to answer climatological questions. The project will capitalize on recent scientific progress made in the modeling of the inner belt and will address the primary radiation environment hazard for the satellite design community. The solar-cycle reanalysis of the inner belt will feed directly into the on-going development of more accurate radiation specification models, addressing the top priority radiation environment need of the spacecraft engineering community. This unique connection between research and operations also develops partnerships between communities and across disciplines, and ensures broad dissemination of the results.