CNH: Collaborative Research: Climate Change and Responses in a Coupled Marine System

CNH：合作研究：耦合海洋系统中的气候变化和响应

• 批准号: 0908939
• 负责人: Eileen Hofmann
• 金额: $ 30万
• 依托单位: Old Dominion University Research Foundation
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-10-01 至 2014-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0908939&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: CNH; Collaborative; Research; Climate; Change

a) Technical description: The project focuses on the surf clam (Spisula solidissima) populations of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England waters of the Atlantic coast and the fishery and governance system surrounding this shellfish resource, within the framework of adaptive and cooperative management of complex and dynamic coupled systems. The two overarching questions are (1) how climate forcing affects surf clam populations; and (2) how the current socio-economic and regulatory aspects of the coupled system adjust to the perceived and documented effects of climate change. Heretofore climate forcing has not been considered as a variable in the scientific models used in surf clam management. The project will introduce the environmental aspects of climate forcing through a set of interconnected mathematical and schematic models that allow evaluation of potential outcomes that result from climate forcing. The work builds upon two models developed by this team, a genetics-based population dynamics model and a coupled circulation-larval model, which will be modified for the specifics of surf clams. Outcomes of the modeling will be available to the formal stock assessment process, which in turn informs management and industry decisions. The fishery component of the coupled system and its responses to direct effects of climate forcing as well as management rules will be studied from social science perspectives, but integrated with the biophysical analyses. Of particular interest are ways that the changing environmental conditions change individual and collective behavior in the fishery and that behavior of industry and managerial actors feeds back into the biological system. A spatial choice analysis will model industry responses to changes in clam distribution and abundance. Experimental economics will be used to assess what factors are important to achieving collective action in response to changes in the fishery. Ethnographic techniques will be used to explore the roles of knowledge?particularly scientific and lay models, including the scenarios generated in this project?and social and economic relationships in private and collective decisions about responding to the effects of climate change in the fishery. b) Significance and importance: Marine fisheries are influenced by relationships among climate, oceanographic conditions, biology, fishing industries, and social, economic, and political institutions. This project responds to the need for greater understanding of these complexities in order to redress the cumulative problems related to overfishing, climate change, and environmental stressors. The issues are interdisciplinary in nature; collaborative research on interaction among these components is therefore critical to the larger goal of developing governance institutions that are informed by the best available science. Of specific interest are the effects of climate change on a marine fishery and how those effects are perceived, interpreted, and responded to by scientists and by actors in the public and private sectors. Those human responses then modify the future outcomes in the fishery. The fishery of interest for this study, the surf clam (Spisula solidissima) fishery of the Mid-Atlantic Bight, has suffered a population decline that appears to be a result of climate warming. The study will develop a comprehensive mechanistic description of response to climate change by a dominant member of a biological community, the surf clam. The dominant member of a biological community is the cornerstone of that community as it evolves over geological time, and such cornerstone species are seminal to community stability and long-term resource availability. The study focuses on a particular fishery to develop a new paradigm that can be utilized in a broad arena from terrestrial to freshwater and marine systems. A mechanistic description of change in the species due to climate change will be coupled with the models of the human system. The human system will incorporate the social, economic, and political factors that drive the decisions in the fishing industry and regulatory agency. Using this approach we will characterize how the coupled system evolves and explore management options. For example how does increased uncertainty from climate change modify the incentives of market-based regulations? How are the outcomes changed when there is spatial differentiation of the population that is exaggerated by climate change? Is the sustainability of the species different when the fishing industry has a strong presence in decision-making? The project will enhance the ability of private and public sector groups to effectively respond to the increasing effects of climate-induced changes. The use of state-of-the-art oceanographic and ecological modeling approaches that are linked to economic and social approaches provides opportunities to train students in a variety of disciplines. The proposed work presents a unique opportunity for undergraduate and graduate students and postdoctoral investigators to be trained in the variety of approaches that are needed to solve many of the important problems affecting marine systems. The educational component is integrated with the research and builds on an existing K-12 educational program and outreach with specialized communities such as the commercial fishery.

a）技术描述：该项目着重于大西洋海岸中部和新英格兰南部水域的冲浪蛤（Spisula solidissima）人口，以及该贝类资源的渔业和治理系统，在复杂和动态的自适应和合作管理的框架内。 这两个总体问题是（1）气候强迫如何影响冲浪蛤种群； （2）耦合系统的当前社会经济和监管方面如何适应气候变化的感知和记录的影响。 在冲浪蛤管理中使用的科学模型中，迄今的气候强迫尚未被视为变量。 该项目将通过一组相互联系的数学和示意图介绍气候强迫的环境方面，以评估气候强迫导致的潜在结果。这项工作建立在该团队开发的两个模型上，一个基于遗传学的人群动力学模型和一个耦合的循环大型模型，该模型将针对冲浪蛤的细节进行修改。建模的结果将用于正式的库存评估过程，这又为管理和行业决策提供了信息。 耦合系统的渔业组成部分及其对气候强迫和管理规则的直接影响的反应将从社会科学的角度研究，但与生物物理分析相结合。特别有趣的是，不断变化的环境条件改变渔业中的个人和集体行为，而行业和管理参与者的行为可以反馈到生物系统中。空间选择分析将模拟行业对蛤分布和丰度变化的反应。实验经济学将用于评估哪些因素对于响应渔业变化而实现集体行动很重要。 民族志技术将用于探索知识的作用？特别是科学和外行模型，包括该项目中产生的场景？以及有关应对渔业气候变化影响的私人和集体决定中的社会和经济关系。 b）意义和重要性：海洋渔业受气候，海洋条件，生物学，捕鱼行业以及社会，经济和政治机构之间关系的影响。该项目应对对这些复杂性的进一步理解的需求，以纠正与过度捕捞，气候变化和环境压力源有关的累积问题。 这些问题本质上是跨学科的；因此，关于这些组件之间互动的协作研究对于开发最佳科学所告知的治理机构的更大目标至关重要。特别感兴趣的是气候变化对海洋渔业的影响以及如何感知，解释和反应公共和私营部门的演员。然后，这些人类的反应改变了渔业中未来的结果。这项研究感兴趣的渔业是中大西洋中部的冲浪蛤（Spisula Solidissima）渔业，人口下降似乎是由于气候变暖的结果。这项研究将开发出生物群落的主要成员《冲浪蛤》对气候变化的反应的全面机理描述。生物界的主要成员是该社区在地质时代发展的基石，这种基石物种是社区稳定和长期资源可用性的开创性的。该研究的重点是一种特定的渔业，以开发一种新的范式，该范式可以在从陆地到淡水和海洋系统的广泛领域中使用。由于气候变化而导致的物种变化的机理描述将与人类系统的模型相结合。 人类体系将结合推动捕鱼行业和监管机构决策的社会，经济和政治因素。使用这种方法，我们将表征耦合系统如何发展并探索管理选项。例如，气候变化的不确定性如何改变基于市场的法规的激励措施？当被气候变化夸大的人口空间分化时，结果如何改变？当捕鱼业在决策中具有强大的影响力时，该物种的可持续性是否不同？该项目将增强私人和公共部门群体有效地应对气候引起的变化的影响的能力。与经济和社会方法相关的最先进的海洋学和生态建模方法的使用为培训各种学科的学生提供了机会。拟议的工作为本科生和研究生和博士后调查人员提供了一个独特的机会，以培训各种方法，以解决影响海洋系统的许多重要问题。教育组成部分与研究结合在一起，并以现有的K-12教育计划为基础，并与商业渔业等专业社区进行宣传。