Development of a Theoretical Basis for Modeling Disease Processes in Marine Invertebrates

关于动物流行病如何在海洋无脊椎动物种群中开始和终止以及传播如何支持这一过程的一般性问题，为扩大对海洋疾病暴发的评估提供了基础。要解决这个问题，就需要发展海洋系统中无脊椎动物之间疾病传播的理论框架。这样一个框架将有助于普遍增进对海洋传染病生态学的了解。该提案概述了一项结合实验和建模的努力，将为海洋无脊椎动物疾病提供一般理论。该模型将利用东方牡蛎（Crassostrea virginica）中由marinus Perkinsus引起的皮肤病作为实验系统。然而，该模型将适用于所有活动范围仅限于小尺度的无底或接近无底物种（例如双壳类、腹足类、海胆、珊瑚），以及从河口、泻湖到珊瑚礁带的一系列水动力机制。这个项目是跨学科的，是多个学科的综合。该团队在软体动物病理学和流行病学、遗传学、海岸和河口系统建模、疾病过程和遗传环境方面拥有独特的专业知识，以及长期成功的合作研究历史。通过整合我们跨学科的专业知识，该项目有望为传染病的疾病传播过程提供新的见解，而传统的基于接触率的易感-感染-抗性模型无法描述这些疾病。这种疾病传播模型的缺陷在许多无根海洋生物分类群中普遍存在。该项目还响应了海洋疾病管理方案讲习班的建议，即制定可适用于具体系统的海洋疾病总体框架，并了解疾病传播的决定因素和环境因素对病原体的传播。该项目的研究结果将为海洋系统疾病建模和疾病传播提供重要的理论基础。该项目将有助于在遗传学、病理学、基因组学、人口和循环模型等学科方面培训学生和早期职业科学家，这些学科是解决与渔业和海洋海岸系统有关的许多重要问题所必需的。项目结果将通过科学会议、同行评议文献和网站发布。项目成果将通过STEM教育部和老道明大学海岸物理海洋学中心之间的合作外展计划，用于正在进行的外展工作。其他的外联将通过特拉华河口伙伴关系和海湾发现项目，组织从事特拉华湾的公共外联。

The general question of how epizootics are initiated and terminated in marine invertebrate populations and how this process is supported by transmission provides a basis for expanding the evaluation of marine disease outbreaks. Addressing this question requires development of a theoretical framework for disease transmission among invertebrates in marine systems. Such a framework will contribute to the general advancement of the understanding of the Ecology of Marine Infectious Diseases (EMID). This proposal outlines a combined experimental and modeling effort that will provide a general theory for marine invertebrate diseases. The model will be informed using Dermo disease, caused by Perkinsus marinus, in Eastern oysters (Crassostrea virginica), as an experimental system. However, the model will be applicable to all sessile or nearly sessile species whose movement is restricted to small scales (e.g. bivalves, gastropods, sea urchins, corals) and to a range of hydrodynamic regimes from estuaries to lagoons to coral reef tracts. This project is interdisciplinary and is integrated across several disciplines. The team has a unique mixture of expertise in molluscan pathology and epizootiology, genetics, and modeling of coastal and estuarine systems, disease processes and the genetic milieu, as well as a long history of successful collaborative research. By integrating our expertise across disciplines, this project promises to provide novel insights into the disease transmission process for infectious diseases that are poorly described by traditional susceptible-infected-resistant models built upon contact rates. This deficiency in modeling disease transmission is widespread across many taxa of sessile marine organisms. The project also responds to the recommendations in EMID workshops for the development of general frameworks for marine diseases that can be applied to specific systems and to understanding the determinants of transmission of diseases and the spread of pathogens by environmental factors. The results of this project will provide an important advancement in the theoretical basis for modeling diseases and disease transmission in marine systems. This project will contribute to the training of students and early career scientists in disciplines of genetics, pathology, genomics, and population and circulation modeling that is needed to solve many of the important problems associated with fisheries and marine coastal systems. Project results will be disseminated through scientific conferences, publication in the peer-review literature, and websites. Project results will be used in ongoing outreach efforts through a collaborative outreach program between the Department of STEM Education and the Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography at Old Dominion University. Additional outreach will be through the Partnership for the Delaware Estuary and the Bayshore Discovery Project, organizations engaged in public outreach for Delaware Bay.