Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Know Then Thyself, Domestic Delegation, Information, Leadership Uncertainty and Decisions during Crisis Bargaining

政治学博士论文研究:了解你自己、国内代表团、信息、领导的不确定性和危机谈判中的决策

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    0921149
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 1.05万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2009
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2009-09-15 至 2011-08-31
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

Governments are complex webs of bureaucrats, officials, informal and appointed advisers, so complicated in many cases that one can easily wonder how leaders make informed decisions. How are a leader's decisions not tainted by the inefficiencies and self-interest that must accompany so many individual and institutional viewpoints? More importantly, what happens when such ponderous government structures deal with important matters of foreign policy and decisions to wage war?While the scholarly literature on foreign policy and war is vast, much of it has neglected the important question of how leaders make decisions during foreign policy crises, when they have these complex, sometimes self-interested advisory and bureaucratic structures helping guide policy. This project fills in this important gap on how the discipline understands the link between domestic politics and war. To do so, the project appeals to the literature on how and why "principles" or leaders who have to make authoritative decisions delegate advisory and information gathering tasks to advisors or "agents" in order to reduce their decision-making burden. Associated with this are problems of monitoring the agent's behavior and his/her motivation to shirk from the assigned task and/ or provide self-interested advice. In addition, the complexity of the delegatory structure can lend itself to the distortion and loss of information and advice being presented to the leader. This project examines what effect, if any, this has on the decisions that a leader makes during crises. Using a multi-method approach, that includes formally building the theoretical argument and testing its implications using large-n statistical testing and a controlled laboratory experiment, the study shows that when advisory structures in a state allow such problems to infiltrate freely, leaders are predisposed to making uninformed and inaccurate assessments of the costs of war. Such leaders are therefore more likely to make foreign policy mistakes, such as fighting when they should not, and not fighting when they should. As such, the study seeks to provide an additional domestic-politics based explanation of why benefit seeking, cost minimizing leaders find themselves involved in undesirable, long and costly conflicts. More broadly, the study advances our understanding of risky and costly decision-making under uncertainty, a concern not only of political scientists, but also of other academics. Additionally, the theoretical argument can be easily adapted to explain asymmetric intra- and interstate conflicts.The argument points towards the effectiveness of specific domestic institutions in reducing problems associated with delegating advisory tasks to agents and allowing leaders to make better informed decisions. This research therefore provides valuable clues to policy makers and institutional designers as to what institutions are better in contributing to successful foreign policies. For leaders, the research demonstrates ways in which they can manage and organize their existing institutions and advisers and bureaucrats, in a manner that reduces the need for monitoring and their agents' need to willfully manipulate advice and information and/or shirk from their tasks.
政府是由官僚、官员、非正式顾问和指定顾问组成的复杂网络,在许多情况下非常复杂,以至于人们很容易想知道领导人如何做出明智的决策。领导者的决策如何不被如此多的个人和机构观点所伴随的低效率和自身利益所玷污?更重要的是,当如此繁重的政府结构处理重要的外交政策问题和发动战争的决定时,会发生什么?虽然关于外交政策和战争的学术文献数量庞大,但其中大部分都忽略了一个重要问题:当领导人拥有这些复杂的、有时是自私的咨询和官僚结构来帮助指导政策时,他们在外交政策危机期间如何做出决策。该项目填补了该学科如何理解国内政治与战争之间联系的重要空白。为此,该项目求助于有关必须做出权威决策的“原则”或领导者如何以及为何将咨询和信息收集任务委托给顾问或“代理人”的文献,以减轻他们的决策负担。与此相关的是监视代理的行为以及他/她逃避分配的任务和/或提供自利建议的动机的问题。此外,授权结构的复杂性可能导致向领导者提供的信息和建议的扭曲和丢失。该项目研究这对领导者在危机期间做出的决策有何影响(如果有)。该研究采用多种方法,包括正式构建理论论证并使用大数统计测试和受控实验室实验来测试其影响,结果表明,当一个国家的咨询结构允许此类问题自由渗透时,领导人就容易对战争成本做出不知情和不准确的评估。因此,此类领导人更有可能犯外交政策错误,例如不该打仗时打仗,该打仗时却不打仗。因此,该研究旨在提供基于国内政治的额外解释,解释为什么寻求利益、成本最小化的领导人发现自己卷入了不受欢迎的、长期的和代价高昂的冲突。更广泛地说,这项研究增进了我们对不确定性下的风险和代价高昂的决策的理解,这不仅是政治学家的关注点,也是其他学者的关注点。此外,理论论证可以很容易地用来解释不对称的国内和国家间冲突。该论证指出特定国内机构在减少与将咨询任务委托给代理人相关的问题以及允许领导人做出更明智的决策方面的有效性。因此,这项研究为政策制定者和制度设计者提供了宝贵的线索,让他们了解哪些制度能够更好地促进外交政策的成功。对于领导者来说,这项研究展示了他们管理和组织现有机构、顾问和官僚的方法,以减少监控的需要以及他们的代理人故意操纵建议和信息和/或逃避任务的需要。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)

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David Clark其他文献

Deep Mutations have Little Impact
深度突变影响不大
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    William B. Langdon;David Clark
  • 通讯作者:
    David Clark
Comparison of the ability of veterinary medical students to perform laparoscopic versus conventional open ovariectomy on live dogs.
兽医学生对活犬进行腹腔镜与传统开腹卵巢切除术的能力比较。
Chapter 10 – Posterior Direct Composites
第 10 章 – 后直接复合
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2012
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    David Clark
  • 通讯作者:
    David Clark
Diversifying Focused Testing for Unit Testing
单元测试的多样化集中测试
Software robustness: a survey, a theory, and prospects
软件稳健性:调查、理论和前景
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2021
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    J. Petke;David Clark;W. Langdon
  • 通讯作者:
    W. Langdon

David Clark的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('David Clark', 18)}}的其他基金

EAGER: Developing design principles for network-scale applications derived from Internet thinking and the behavioral sciences.
EAGER:为源自互联网思维和行为科学的网络规模应用程序开发设计原则。
  • 批准号:
    2236700
  • 财政年份:
    2022
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.05万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
RAPID: Coordination and Summarization of Studies of Cyberspace during COVID-19 Pandemic
RAPID:COVID-19 大流行期间网络空间研究的协调和总结
  • 批准号:
    2031115
  • 财政年份:
    2020
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.05万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
End of life care in the United Kingdom and Japan - intersections in culture, practice and policy (The Mitori Project)
英国和日本的临终关怀——文化、实践和政策的交叉点(Mitori 项目)
  • 批准号:
    ES/S013865/1
  • 财政年份:
    2019
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.05万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Understanding the effects of condensation on electrical discharge phenomena in next generation more-electric and hybrid aircraft
了解冷凝对下一代多电动和混合动力飞机中放电现象的影响
  • 批准号:
    EP/R012881/1
  • 财政年份:
    2018
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.05万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
InfoTestSS: Information theory and Test Suite Selection
InfoTestSS:信息论和测试套件选择
  • 批准号:
    EP/P005888/1
  • 财政年份:
    2017
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.05万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
I-Corps: Responsive Writing Solutions
I-Corps:响应式写作解决方案
  • 批准号:
    1624026
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.05万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Future Internet Architecture Fall 2015 Investigator Workshop
未来互联网架构 2015 年秋季研究员研讨会
  • 批准号:
    1608691
  • 财政年份:
    2016
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.05万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Workshop: FIA Investigator meeting June 1-2, 2015
研讨会:FIA 调查员会议,2015 年 6 月 1-2 日
  • 批准号:
    1547509
  • 财政年份:
    2015
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.05万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Workshop: FIA Investigator Meeting Fall 2014
研讨会:2014 年秋季 FIA 调查员会议
  • 批准号:
    1516130
  • 财政年份:
    2015
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.05万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Workshops on Tracking Quality of Experience in the Internet
跟踪互联网体验质量研讨会
  • 批准号:
    1555796
  • 财政年份:
    2015
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.05万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant

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