Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: The Architecture of Political Choice--Political Rhetoric, Economic Perceptions, and Risky Political Prospects

几十年来，中国经济的表现与公众对政府的支持之间的关系一直是学术界争论的焦点。然而，很少有研究试图将政治精英作为经济舆论领袖的角色纳入经济投票理论。这是一个重要的遗漏，因为政治传播学和行为经济学的研究表明，来自政治精英的信息对公众舆论有重大影响。将宏观经济表现与选举成功联系在一起的理论往往承认政治精英在塑造公众认知方面的重要性，但未能系统地解决精英言论的影响。这个项目以这项研究为基础，将精英和精英修辞重新纳入政府支持的经济基础研究。具体地说，这项研究解决了三个主要问题：个人依靠什么信息来形成和修正对国家经济表现的看法？发达民主国家和发展中民主国家的经济投票性质出现差异的原因是什么？政治精英的经济言论如何以及在多大程度上影响了经济观点以及由此带来的对政府的支持？在美国和墨西哥进行的一项实验室实验将被用来检验与该项目目标相关的一系列假设。这一结果将为我们深入了解当代民主国家政治精英传播的经济修辞和公民不断面临的经济修辞的现实世界影响。对政治修辞、经济观念和政府支持的研究从未像今天这样重要。随着民主价值观和制度继续在全球传播，公民面临着让民选官员对自己的行为负责的挑战。然而，如果政治精英能够为了政治利益而在口头上塑造经济判断，那么传统的问责标准就会受到破坏。对发达和发展中民主国家问责制水平的更广泛影响是巨大的。因此，回答政治精英如何使用经济修辞而不是经济政策工具来塑造公众支持的问题，不仅仅是一项学术事业；对于民主价值观和民主可持续性的支持者来说，这是一项至关重要的任务。

The relationship between the performance of the nation's economy and public support for the government has been a source of scholarly debate for decades. Little research, however, has sought to incorporate the role of political elites as economic opinion leaders into a theory of economic voting. This is an important omission as research in political communications and behavioral economics demonstrates that messages from political elites have significant impacts on public opinion. Theories linking macroeconomic performance with electoral success often acknowledge the importance of political elites in shaping public perceptions but fail to address systematically the impact of elite rhetoric. This project builds on this research by bringing elites and elite rhetoric back into the study of the economic foundations of government support. Specifically, the study addresses three primary questions: What information do individuals rely on to formulate and revise perceptions of the nation's economic performance? What are the causes of observed variation in the nature of the economic vote across developed and developing democracies? How, and to what extent, does the economic rhetoric of political elites shape economic opinion and consequent support for the government? A laboratory experiment conducted in both the United States and Mexico will be used to test a series of hypotheses related to the project's objectives. The results will provide insights into the real-world effect of the economic rhetoric political elites disseminate and citizens constantly face in contemporary democracies.The study of political rhetoric, economic perceptions, and government support has never been more important than it is today. As democratic values and institutions continue to spread across the globe, citizens are faced with the challenge of holding elected officials accountable for their actions. Yet, if political elites are able to shape rhetorically economic judgments for political gain, conventional standards of accountability are undermined. The broader implications for the level of accountability in both developed and developing democracies are massive. As a result, answering the question of how political elites use economic rhetoric, rather than economic policy tools, to shape public support is more than just a scholarly enterprise; it is an essential task for proponents of democratic values and democratic sustainability.