NSWP: Automated Shock Analysis for Space Weather Predictions

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This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).This University of New Hampshire team has recently developed a fully automated version of a popular and familiar shock analysis code, based on the solution of the Rankine-Hugoniot relations, creating a tool that is accessible via the internet. The code utilizes real-time data from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft to provide solar wind shock solutions within 10 minutes of a shock's passage by the ACE spacecraft, located at the Sun-Earth Lagrange point (L1). These solutions provide approximately one hour advance notice before such shocks impact the Earth's magnetopause. In this effort, the Principal Investigator (PI) and his team will upgrade the performance and utility of the web page and associated tools, while adding features not currently available. The planned enhancements will provide more reliable determination of shocks and their parameters, and predict the likely characteristics of approaching ICME sheath regions, which are known to be space weather drivers. The team will perform statistical studies of past shocks in order to improve existing codes and allow them to provide this new information. The PI notes that automated space weather analyses running in the public domain have proved useful during the recent solar maximum. Such analyses are expected to play an increasing role in society's efforts to protect itself from geomagnetic storm effects originating with solar transient events. The PI's automated code can provide advance warning of approaching shocks so that actions can be taken to protect biological, industrial, and technological assets that may be adversely affected. The PI's team will also recruit and employ undergraduate physics majors to work in this effort. The project will provide these students with experience in data reduction and programming techniques, training in shock physics and space science, and practice in writing scientific papers. The PI has a history of mentoring successful undergraduates who have written significant research papers and presented them at international meetings.