Some Issues in Analytic Inference from Complex Surveys

该奖项是根据2009年《美国复苏和再投资法》(公法111-5)资助的。调查是广泛科学学科中的一个关键数据来源，往往是公共和公司决策过程中的重要投入。虽然调查数据的主要用途是描述抽样调查的人群，但分析人士越来越多地使用这些数据来推断统计模型。在模型估计和分析中对测量数据的这种使用称为对测量数据的分析推断。调查数据产生机构通常建议在所有与调查数据拟合的模型中使用调查权重，以考虑抽样设计和抽样后调整。这往往使数据分析师的工作变得非常复杂，这在很大程度上是因为人们仍然不完全了解调查权重在分析推理中的作用。本研究将探讨调查分析推论中一些长期悬而未决的问题。首先，在调查加权的推论模式下，采购经理人将研究改进的方差估计方法和分布理论。其次，他们将在模型拟合和推断中评估一些替代调查权重的方法。这项研究将结合调查统计学和其他统计学领域的概念、方法和途径，推进如何对调查数据进行适当的分析推断的知识状况。最终将提高数据分析人员对调查数据进行分析推理的能力。由于调查数据的收集和分析在许多学科中都很重要，因此所提出的研究成果将具有广泛的适用性。

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).Surveys represent a key source of data in a wide range of scientific disciplines, and are often an important input in public and corporate decision-making processes. While the primary use of survey data is to describe the population from which the sample was drawn, analysts are increasingly using those data to make inference about statistical models. This use of survey data in model estimation and analysis is referred to as analytic inference for survey data. Survey data producing organizations usually recommend that survey weights be used in all model fitting with survey data, in order to account for the sampling design and the post-sampling adjustments. This often significantly complicates the work of data analysts, in large part because the effect of survey weighting in analytic inference is still incompletely understood. This research will explore some long-standing open issues in analytic inference for surveys. First, within the survey-weighted mode of inference, the PIs will investigate improved variance estimation methods and distributional theory. Second, they will evaluate a number of alternatives to survey weighting in model fitting and inference. This research will advance the state of knowledge in how to properly conduct analytic inference for survey data by bringing together concepts, methods and approaches from survey statistics and other areas of statistics. Ultimately, it will enhance the ability of data analysts to conduct perform analytic inference for survey data. Because of the importance of survey data collection and analysis in so many disciplines, the results of the proposed research will be widely applicable.