Collaborative Research: Population Response to Quaternary Environmental Change: Great Basin Lagomorphs as a Case Study

第四纪环境变化的群体响应--以大盆地湖沼为例斯坦福大学生物系哈德利（Hadly）华盛顿大学人类学系唐纳德·格雷森（Donald Grayson）_ 该奖项是根据2009年美国复苏和再投资法案（公法111-5）资助的。 全球平均气温将上升1.1-6.4？到本世纪末，美国西部地区的变化更大。 除了变化范围之外，对我们本土生物群的影响现在才开始调查。 至关重要的是，我们的目标是确定种群持续性和整体物种灭绝风险的可靠指标。 评估快速环境变化对现存动物群的无数影响的最佳方法之一是研究这些物种如何对最近的气候事件作出反应。 分子遗传学、稳定同位素研究、考古学、古生物学、形态测量学和气候建模的最新进展现在可以结合起来揭示化石本身造成人口损失的阈值，这是一项尚未尝试过的奋进。 在这里，我们建议组建一个多元化的团队，建立和开始调查，以确定潜在的人口持续性，扩张和损失的化石记录的因素。 在我们的范例研究系统，大盆地，我们建议使用一个不同的模型哺乳动物的命令，兔形目，问化石记录是否可以帮助我们确定潜在的濒危种群的哺乳动物的生存阈值。 特别是，我们建议在过去15,000年的背景下，不断变化的景观，气候和该地区的人口的lagomorphs的扩张和灭绝动态进行调查。 我们将使用化石发生和相对丰度数据，考古学，形态测量学，同位素数据，现代和古代遗传多样性（生物年代学），人口规模和连接分析的组合，以确定与人口动态的因素。 通过关注这一广泛而多样的景观，通过大约15,000年的剧烈环境变化，我们将提供一个概念和经验的包，这将允许更精确地预测全球现存哺乳动物的命运，面对持续的人为造成的环境变化。

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCHPOPULATION RESPONSE TO QUATERNARY ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE: GREAT BASIN LAGOMORPHS AS A CASE STUDYElizabeth A. Hadly, Department of Biology, Stanford UniversityDonald Grayson, Department of Anthropology, University of Washington________________________________________ This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5). Increase in global mean temperatures will amount to 1.1-6.4?aC by the end of this century, with US western regional changes even greater. Beyond shifting ranges, impacts to our native biota are only now beginning to be investigated. It is critical that we take on the goal of determining reliable indicators of population persistence and overall species extinction risk. One of the best ways of assessing the myriad effects of rapid environmental change on our extant fauna is to study how these same species responded to climatic events of the recent past. Recent advances in molecular genetics, stable isotope research, archaeology, paleontology, morphometrics and climatic modeling can now be combined to reveal the thresholds behind population loss from the fossils themselves, an endeavor that has not yet been attempted. Here we propose to assemble a diverse team of established and beginning investigators to ascertain factors underlying population persistence, expansion and loss from the fossil record. Within our exemplar study system, the Great Basin, we propose to use a diverse model mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, to ask whether the fossil record can help us to identify survival thresholds in potentially endangered populations of mammals. In particular, we propose to investigate the expansion and extirpation dynamics of lagomorphs over the last 15,000 years against the backdrop of changing landscapes, climates, and human populations in the region. We will use a combination of fossil occurrence and relative abundance data, archaeology, morphometrics, isotopic data, analysis of both modern and ancient genetic diversity (phylochronology), population size and connectivity to ascertain the factors associated with population dynamics of this group. By focusing across this broad and varied landscape through some 15,000 years of dramatic environmental change, we will provide a conceptual and empirical package that will allow more precise predictions of the fate of extant mammals worldwide in the face of ongoing human-caused environmental change.