Collaborative Research: Population Response to Quaternary Environmental Change: Great Basin Lagomorphs as a Case Study

合作研究：人口对第四纪环境变化的反应：以大盆地兔类动物为例

• 批准号: 0924021
• 负责人: Elizabeth Hadly
• 金额: $ 30.84万
• 依托单位: Stanford University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-15 至 2012-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0924021&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Population; Response; Quaternary

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCHPOPULATION RESPONSE TO QUATERNARY ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE: GREAT BASIN LAGOMORPHS AS A CASE STUDYElizabeth A. Hadly, Department of Biology, Stanford UniversityDonald Grayson, Department of Anthropology, University of Washington________________________________________ This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5). Increase in global mean temperatures will amount to 1.1-6.4?aC by the end of this century, with US western regional changes even greater. Beyond shifting ranges, impacts to our native biota are only now beginning to be investigated. It is critical that we take on the goal of determining reliable indicators of population persistence and overall species extinction risk. One of the best ways of assessing the myriad effects of rapid environmental change on our extant fauna is to study how these same species responded to climatic events of the recent past. Recent advances in molecular genetics, stable isotope research, archaeology, paleontology, morphometrics and climatic modeling can now be combined to reveal the thresholds behind population loss from the fossils themselves, an endeavor that has not yet been attempted. Here we propose to assemble a diverse team of established and beginning investigators to ascertain factors underlying population persistence, expansion and loss from the fossil record. Within our exemplar study system, the Great Basin, we propose to use a diverse model mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, to ask whether the fossil record can help us to identify survival thresholds in potentially endangered populations of mammals. In particular, we propose to investigate the expansion and extirpation dynamics of lagomorphs over the last 15,000 years against the backdrop of changing landscapes, climates, and human populations in the region. We will use a combination of fossil occurrence and relative abundance data, archaeology, morphometrics, isotopic data, analysis of both modern and ancient genetic diversity (phylochronology), population size and connectivity to ascertain the factors associated with population dynamics of this group. By focusing across this broad and varied landscape through some 15,000 years of dramatic environmental change, we will provide a conceptual and empirical package that will allow more precise predictions of the fate of extant mammals worldwide in the face of ongoing human-caused environmental change.

合作研究人口对第四纪环境变化的反应：以大盆地拉戈莫普斯为案例研究伊丽莎白·A·哈德利，斯坦福大学生物系唐纳德·格雷森，华盛顿大学人类学系 ____________________________________________________ 该奖项是根据《2009 年美国复苏和再投资法案》（公法）资助的111-5）。 到本世纪末，全球平均气温将上升1.1-6.4℃，其中美国西部地区变化更大。 除了变化范围之外，对我们本土生物群的影响现在才刚刚开始调查。 我们的目标是确定种群持久性和总体物种灭绝风险的可靠指标，这一点至关重要。 评估快速环境变化对现存动物群的众多影响的最佳方法之一是研究这些相同物种如何应对最近的气候事件。 分子遗传学、稳定同位素研究、考古学、古生物学、形态测量学和气候模型方面的最新进展现在可以结合起来，揭示化石本身导致种群数量减少的阈值，这是一项尚未尝试过的努力。 在这里，我们建议组建一个由已建立和刚刚起步的研究人员组成的多元化团队，以从化石记录中确定种群持续、扩张和消失的潜在因素。 在我们的示范研究系统“大盆地”中，我们建议使用一种多样化的模式哺乳动物目兔形目来询问化石记录是否可以帮助我们确定潜在濒危哺乳动物种群的生存阈值。 特别是，我们建议在该地区不断变化的景观、气候和人口的背景下，研究过去 15,000 年来兔类动物的扩张和灭绝动态。 我们将结合化石出现和相对丰度数据、考古学、形态测量学、同位素数据、现代和古代遗传多样性分析（系统年代学）、种群规模和连通性来确定与该群体种群动态相关的因素。 通过关注大约 15,000 年来巨大的环境变化中这一广泛而多样的景观，我们将提供一个概念和经验包，以便更准确地预测全世界现存哺乳动物在面临持续的人为环境变化时的命运。