Collaborative Research: ORCC:RUI: Integrating evolutionary and migratory potential of Chamaecrista fasciculata into forecasts of range-wide population dynamics under climate change

合作研究：ORCC：RUI：将 Chamaecrista fasciculata 的进化和迁徙潜力纳入气候变化下范围内种群动态的预测中

• 批准号: 2220927
• 负责人: Jill Anderson
• 金额: $ 107.05万
• 依托单位: University of Georgia Research Foundation Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-01-01 至 2026-12-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=2220927&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; ORCC; RUI; Integrating

Successful conservation of global biodiversity requires that biologists accurately predict the risk of species extinction under future climate conditions. However, current models often make simplifying assumptions about the biology of plants and animals. For example, some models assume that a species can easily migrate through the landscape when this is not the case, or that a species is not able to evolve rapidly to environmental change when this is actually a possibility. Our interdisciplinary team will study the biology of a plant species to determine what data researchers and conservationists need to predict how climate change will influence extinction risk for plants in the natural environment. We will use the partridge pea (Chamaecrista fasciculata), a common and widespread plant in natural grasslands, to identify the type of data needed to improve ecological models for conservation planning. We will evaluate genetic differences and rates of gene flow among populations and estimate these populations’ ability to evolve in response to climate change to identify models that best describe or forecast rates of change under new climate conditions. In collaboration with the Georgia Plant Conservation Alliance and the Southeastern Grasslands Initiative, we will apply what we learn to develop a series of tools that practitioners can use to predict extinction risks under climate change for at-risk grassland species. This work will significantly improve our ability to protect biodiversity in the southeastern U.S. and in habitats around the world.Populations across the range of a species vary in their migratory and adaptive potential under climate change. Most approaches aimed at predicting population persistence under climate change make simplifying assumptions about plasticity, adaptation, and gene flow that are commonly violated in natural systems. We combine approaches from evolutionary biology, field ecology, and population genomics to forecast range-wide dynamics under climate change in a broadly distributed native legume (Chamaecrista fasciculata). Our studies examine the migratory potential of populations under climate change using population genomic estimators of historical gene flow. To evaluate adaptive potential, we will expose paternal half-sib families from 12 populations to contemporary climates and simulated climate change in common gardens across the range. Finally, we will forecast eco-evolutionary dynamics under climate change using models that differ in the degree to which they incorporate data on species occurrence, additive genetic variance in fitness in response to climate, trait expression, sequence variation, and gene flow. Our work will provide a robust framework for predictions of range-wide responses to climate change in systems that are less amenable to manipulation. We will collaborate with conservation practitioners in the Georgia Plant Conservation Alliance and Southeastern Grasslands Initiative to produce risk assessment tools that project range dynamics under climate change for endangered plant species. In workshops, we will discuss our progress and provide opportunities for our trainees to forge connections with conservation practitioners. The PIs will recruit, train, and mentor scholars from historically marginalized backgrounds in population genomics, quantitative genetics, data analysis, and ecological modeling.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

成功地保护全球生物多样性需要生物学家准确地预测未来气候条件下物种灭绝的风险。然而，目前的模型往往对植物和动物的生物学做出简化的假设。例如，一些模型假设一个物种可以很容易地通过景观迁移，而事实并非如此，或者一个物种不能迅速进化以适应环境变化，而这实际上是可能的。 我们的跨学科团队将研究植物物种的生物学，以确定研究人员和保护主义者需要什么数据来预测气候变化将如何影响自然环境中植物的灭绝风险。我们将使用在天然草地中常见且广泛分布的植物--豌豆（Chamaecrista fasciculata），来确定改善保护规划生态模型所需的数据类型。我们将评估种群间的遗传差异和基因流动速率，并估计这些种群应对气候变化的能力，以确定最能描述或预测新气候条件下变化速率的模型。在与格鲁吉亚植物保护联盟和东南草原倡议合作，我们将应用我们所学到的开发一系列工具，从业者可以用来预测灭绝风险在气候变化下的风险草原物种。这项工作将大大提高我们保护美国东南部和世界各地栖息地生物多样性的能力。一个物种的种群在气候变化下的迁移和适应潜力各不相同。大多数旨在预测气候变化下种群持续性的方法都对可塑性、适应性和基因流动做出了简化的假设，而这些假设在自然系统中通常是违反的。我们结合联合收割机的方法，从进化生物学，田间生态学，和人口基因组学预测范围内的动态气候变化下广泛分布的本地豆科植物（Chamaecristafasciculata）。我们的研究使用历史基因流动的种群基因组估计值来研究气候变化下种群的迁移潜力。为了评估适应潜力，我们将暴露父系半同胞家庭从12个人口的当代气候和模拟气候变化的共同花园的范围。最后，我们将预测气候变化下的生态进化动力学模型，不同的程度上，他们将物种的发生，加性遗传方差适应气候，性状表达，序列变异和基因流的数据。我们的工作将提供一个强大的框架，预测范围内的气候变化的系统，是不太容易操纵的反应。我们将与格鲁吉亚植物保护联盟和东南草原倡议的保护实践者合作，制作风险评估工具，预测濒危植物物种在气候变化下的范围动态。在工作坊中，我们将讨论我们的进展，并为我们的学员提供机会，与保护工作者建立联系。PI将招募、培训和指导来自人口基因组学、数量遗传学、数据分析和生态建模等历史边缘背景的学者。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

The consequences of winter climate change for plant performance

冬季气候变化对植物性能的影响

• DOI: 10.1002/ajb2.16252
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: American Journal of Botany
• 影响因子: 3
• 作者: Anderson, Jill T.