Collaborative Research: Population Response to Quaternary Environmental Change: Great Basin Lagomorphs as a Case Study

合作研究人口对第四纪环境变化的响应：以大盆地LAGOMORPHS为例伊丽莎白·A·哈德利，斯坦福大学生物系唐纳德·格雷森，华盛顿大学人类学系________________________________________该奖项由2009年美国复苏与再投资法案（公法111-5）资助。全球平均气温将上升1.1-6.4？到本世纪末，美国西部地区的变化甚至更大。除了范围的变化，对我们本地生物群的影响现在才刚刚开始调查。至关重要的是，我们的目标是确定种群持久性和整体物种灭绝风险的可靠指标。要评估快速的环境变化对现存动物群的无数影响，最好的方法之一就是研究这些物种是如何对最近的气候事件做出反应的。分子遗传学、稳定同位素研究、考古学、古生物学、形态计量学和气候模型的最新进展现在可以结合起来，从化石本身揭示种群损失背后的阈值，这是一项尚未尝试过的努力。在这里，我们建议组建一个由成熟的和初学的研究者组成的多元化团队，从化石记录中确定种群持续、扩张和消失的潜在因素。在我们的范例研究系统中，大盆地，我们建议使用一个多样化的哺乳动物模型，Lagomorpha，来询问化石记录是否可以帮助我们确定潜在濒危哺乳动物种群的生存阈值。在过去的15000年里，我们特别提出了在景观、气候和人口变化的背景下，研究lagomorphi的扩张和灭绝动态。我们将结合化石发生和相对丰度数据、考古学、形态计量学、同位素数据、现代和古代遗传多样性（系统年代学）分析、种群规模和连通性来确定与该群体种群动态相关的因素。通过关注这一广阔而多样的景观，通过大约15000年的剧烈环境变化，我们将提供一个概念和经验的一揽子计划，这将使面对持续的人类造成的环境变化，世界范围内现存哺乳动物的命运得到更精确的预测。

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCHPOPULATION RESPONSE TO QUATERNARY ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE: GREAT BASIN LAGOMORPHS AS A CASE STUDYElizabeth A. Hadly, Department of Biology, Stanford UniversityDonald Grayson, Department of Anthropology, University of Washington________________________________________ This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5). Increase in global mean temperatures will amount to 1.1-6.4?aC by the end of this century, with US western regional changes even greater. Beyond shifting ranges, impacts to our native biota are only now beginning to be investigated. It is critical that we take on the goal of determining reliable indicators of population persistence and overall species extinction risk. One of the best ways of assessing the myriad effects of rapid environmental change on our extant fauna is to study how these same species responded to climatic events of the recent past. Recent advances in molecular genetics, stable isotope research, archaeology, paleontology, morphometrics and climatic modeling can now be combined to reveal the thresholds behind population loss from the fossils themselves, an endeavor that has not yet been attempted. Here we propose to assemble a diverse team of established and beginning investigators to ascertain factors underlying population persistence, expansion and loss from the fossil record. Within our exemplar study system, the Great Basin, we propose to use a diverse model mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, to ask whether the fossil record can help us to identify survival thresholds in potentially endangered populations of mammals. In particular, we propose to investigate the expansion and extirpation dynamics of lagomorphs over the last 15,000 years against the backdrop of changing landscapes, climates, and human populations in the region. We will use a combination of fossil occurrence and relative abundance data, archaeology, morphometrics, isotopic data, analysis of both modern and ancient genetic diversity (phylochronology), population size and connectivity to ascertain the factors associated with population dynamics of this group. By focusing across this broad and varied landscape through some 15,000 years of dramatic environmental change, we will provide a conceptual and empirical package that will allow more precise predictions of the fate of extant mammals worldwide in the face of ongoing human-caused environmental change.