Collaborative Research: Population Response to Quaternary Environmental Change: Great Basin Lagomorphs as a Case Study

合作研究对第四纪环境变化的响应：大盆地泻湖作为案例研究斯坦福大学生物系伊丽莎白·A·哈德利Washington________________________________________大学人类学系唐纳德·格雷森该奖项由2009年美国复苏和再投资法案(公法第111-5条)资助。到本世纪末，全球平均气温的增加将达到1.1-6.4摄氏度，美国西部地区的变化甚至更大。除了变化的范围之外，对我们本土生物群的影响现在才刚刚开始调查。至关重要的是，我们的目标是确定可靠的种群持久性和总体物种灭绝风险指标。要评估快速环境变化对我们现存动物的众多影响，最好的方法之一是研究这些相同的物种如何对最近发生的气候事件做出反应。分子遗传学、稳定同位素研究、考古学、古生物学、形态计量学和气候模拟方面的最新进展现在可以结合起来，揭示化石本身造成种群损失的门槛，这是一项尚未尝试的努力。在这里，我们建议组建一个由成熟的和开始的调查人员组成的多样化团队，以确定化石记录中种群持续、扩张和丧失的潜在因素。在我们的示范研究系统--大盆地内，我们建议使用一个多样化的模式哺乳动物目--兔形目--来询问化石记录是否可以帮助我们确定潜在濒危哺乳动物种群的生存阈值。特别是，我们建议在该地区不断变化的景观、气候和人口的背景下，研究过去15,000年来环状动物的扩张和灭绝动力学。我们将结合化石出现和相对丰度数据、考古学、形态测量学、同位素数据、现代和古代遗传多样性分析(系统学年代学)、种群规模和连接性来确定与该种群种群动态相关的因素。通过关注这片广阔而多样的景观，通过大约15,000年的戏剧性环境变化，我们将提供一个概念性和经验性的一揽子方案，使我们能够更准确地预测世界各地现存哺乳动物在面临持续的人类造成的环境变化时的命运。

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCHPOPULATION RESPONSE TO QUATERNARY ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE: GREAT BASIN LAGOMORPHS AS A CASE STUDYElizabeth A. Hadly, Department of Biology, Stanford UniversityDonald Grayson, Department of Anthropology, University of Washington________________________________________ This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5). Increase in global mean temperatures will amount to 1.1-6.4?aC by the end of this century, with US western regional changes even greater. Beyond shifting ranges, impacts to our native biota are only now beginning to be investigated. It is critical that we take on the goal of determining reliable indicators of population persistence and overall species extinction risk. One of the best ways of assessing the myriad effects of rapid environmental change on our extant fauna is to study how these same species responded to climatic events of the recent past. Recent advances in molecular genetics, stable isotope research, archaeology, paleontology, morphometrics and climatic modeling can now be combined to reveal the thresholds behind population loss from the fossils themselves, an endeavor that has not yet been attempted. Here we propose to assemble a diverse team of established and beginning investigators to ascertain factors underlying population persistence, expansion and loss from the fossil record. Within our exemplar study system, the Great Basin, we propose to use a diverse model mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, to ask whether the fossil record can help us to identify survival thresholds in potentially endangered populations of mammals. In particular, we propose to investigate the expansion and extirpation dynamics of lagomorphs over the last 15,000 years against the backdrop of changing landscapes, climates, and human populations in the region. We will use a combination of fossil occurrence and relative abundance data, archaeology, morphometrics, isotopic data, analysis of both modern and ancient genetic diversity (phylochronology), population size and connectivity to ascertain the factors associated with population dynamics of this group. By focusing across this broad and varied landscape through some 15,000 years of dramatic environmental change, we will provide a conceptual and empirical package that will allow more precise predictions of the fate of extant mammals worldwide in the face of ongoing human-caused environmental change.