Modeling and Simulation of Complex Stochastic Systems and Cascading Failures, with Applications to the Electric Power Grid

该项目的目标是研究复杂的随机系统，其中一个特别的重点是连锁故障。电网和容错计算系统等系统都存在这样的故障，而这些系统的有效设计和运行关键依赖于准确的建模和有效的分析技术。研究人员计划开发有效的分析和模拟方法来分析这类系统。由于这些系统被设计成很少会失败，标准的模拟方法是无效的，需要使用研究人员计划开发的效率改进技术。该项目的另一个方面是生产具有使其适合在随机优化算法中使用的特性的模拟方法。除了具有较低的偏差和方差外，这些估计器将使用有限数量的内存，并且不需要确定优先级的模拟运行长度。连锁故障影响了许多复杂的系统，包括那些构成国家关键基础设施的系统，如电网和通信网络。研究人员提议开发的技术将有助于更好地理解这种潜在的破坏性现象，更广泛地说，将有助于设计和优化在不确定条件下运行的系统。调查人员将改进他们开发的软件包，以纳入新的建模和分析进展，并考虑到其中一些基础设施固有的特殊结构，如电网。拟议工作的其他更广泛的影响包括教育和包括在研究中代表人数不足的少数群体和本科生，以及与当地高中的接触。

The goal of the project is to study complex stochastic systems, with one particular focus on cascading failures. Systems such as the electric power grid and fault-tolerant computing systems suffer from such failures, and the effective design and operation of these systems critically depend on accurate modeling and effcient analysis techniques. The investigators plan to produce effcient analytical and simulation methods for analyzing such systems. Because these systems are designed to fail only very rarely, standard simulation methods are ineffective, necessitating the use of effciency-improvement techniques, which the investigators plan to develop. Another aspect of the project is producing simulation methods with properties that make them appropriate to use within stochastic optimization algorithms. In addition to having low bias and variance, these estimators will use a bounded amount of memory and will not require an a priorixed simulation run length. Cascading failures affict many complex systems, including those that make up the nation's critical infrastructure, such as the electric power grid and communication networks.The techniques that the investigators propose to develop will lead to a better understanding of this potentially devastating phenomenon and more generally will aid in designing and optimizing systems operating under uncertainty. The investigators will enhance a software package they developed to incorporate the new modeling and analysis advances, taking into account special structure inherent to some of these infrastructures, such as the electric power grid. Other broader impacts of the proposed work include educating and including in research underrepresented minorities and undergraduates and outreach to local high schools.