Modeling and Simulation of Complex Stochastic Systems and Cascading Failures, with Applications to the Electric Power Grid

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The goal of the project is to study complex stochastic systems, with one particular focus on cascading failures. Systems such as the electric power grid and fault-tolerant computing systems suffer from such failures, and the effective design and operation of these systems critically depend on accurate modeling and effcient analysis techniques. The investigators plan to produce effcient analytical and simulation methods for analyzing such systems. Because these systems are designed to fail only very rarely, standard simulation methods are ineffective, necessitating the use of effciency-improvement techniques, which the investigators plan to develop. Another aspect of the project is producing simulation methods with properties that make them appropriate to use within stochastic optimization algorithms. In addition to having low bias and variance, these estimators will use a bounded amount of memory and will not require an a priorixed simulation run length. Cascading failures affict many complex systems, including those that make up the nation's critical infrastructure, such as the electric power grid and communication networks.The techniques that the investigators propose to develop will lead to a better understanding of this potentially devastating phenomenon and more generally will aid in designing and optimizing systems operating under uncertainty. The investigators will enhance a software package they developed to incorporate the new modeling and analysis advances, taking into account special structure inherent to some of these infrastructures, such as the electric power grid. Other broader impacts of the proposed work include educating and including in research underrepresented minorities and undergraduates and outreach to local high schools.