Modeling and Simulation of Complex Stochastic Systems and Cascading Failures, with Applications to the Electric Power Grid
复杂随机系统和级联故障的建模和仿真及其在电网中的应用
基本信息
- 批准号:0926949
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 35万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Standard Grant
- 财政年份:2009
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2009-08-15 至 2014-07-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
The goal of the project is to study complex stochastic systems, with one particular focus on cascading failures. Systems such as the electric power grid and fault-tolerant computing systems suffer from such failures, and the effective design and operation of these systems critically depend on accurate modeling and effcient analysis techniques. The investigators plan to produce effcient analytical and simulation methods for analyzing such systems. Because these systems are designed to fail only very rarely, standard simulation methods are ineffective, necessitating the use of effciency-improvement techniques, which the investigators plan to develop. Another aspect of the project is producing simulation methods with properties that make them appropriate to use within stochastic optimization algorithms. In addition to having low bias and variance, these estimators will use a bounded amount of memory and will not require an a priorixed simulation run length. Cascading failures affict many complex systems, including those that make up the nation's critical infrastructure, such as the electric power grid and communication networks.The techniques that the investigators propose to develop will lead to a better understanding of this potentially devastating phenomenon and more generally will aid in designing and optimizing systems operating under uncertainty. The investigators will enhance a software package they developed to incorporate the new modeling and analysis advances, taking into account special structure inherent to some of these infrastructures, such as the electric power grid. Other broader impacts of the proposed work include educating and including in research underrepresented minorities and undergraduates and outreach to local high schools.
该项目的目标是研究复杂的随机系统,特别关注连锁故障。诸如电力网和容错计算系统之类的系统遭受这样的故障,并且这些系统的有效设计和操作严重依赖于精确的建模和有效的分析技术。研究人员计划提出有效的分析和模拟方法来分析这样的系统。由于这些系统被设计成很少发生故障,标准的模拟方法是无效的,因此需要使用研究人员计划开发的效率改进技术。该项目的另一个方面是生产模拟方法的属性,使它们适合在随机优化算法中使用。除了具有低偏差和方差之外,这些估计器将使用有限的内存量,并且不需要优先级的模拟运行长度。连锁故障影响到许多复杂的系统,包括那些构成国家关键基础设施的系统,如电网和通信网络。研究人员建议开发的技术将有助于更好地理解这种潜在的破坏性现象,并更普遍地帮助设计和优化在不确定性下运行的系统。研究人员将增强他们开发的软件包,以纳入新的建模和分析进展,并考虑到其中一些基础设施(如电网)固有的特殊结构。拟议工作的其他更广泛的影响包括教育和纳入研究代表性不足的少数群体和本科生,以及与当地高中的外联。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(0)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
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Marvin Nakayama其他文献
Marvin Nakayama的其他文献
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