CMG Collaborative Research: Reconstruction of Dispersal Strategies of Marine Organisms via Semiparametric Dynamic Spatial Regression

海洋生物通常经历一个漫长的扩散阶段，以便从产卵地(源)迁徙到有利的苗圃(汇)，这一过程对它们的长期生存至关重要。不同的物种可能采取不同的扩散策略，以利用海洋环流来成功扩散。然而，由于很难在微小海洋生物的扩散阶段直接观察和跟踪它们，因此对这种扩散过程还知之甚少。这项建议是关于使用海洋环流模型和生物的现场数据吗？分布以重建漂移路径并预测最可能的源位置和漂移初始化的时间。分析的重点是少数几种鱼和水母。这些生物代表着截然不同的生态光谱。鱼主要在生命的早期阶段(卵和幼体)分散，而水母在成体阶段分散。提出了一类新的半参数动态空间回归模型，并开发了用于汇-源重建和各种扩散策略评估的新统计工具。所提出的方法为评估扩散持续时间、产卵时间分布和来自特定来源的生物体的贡献提供了一个新的框架。此外，还将制定扩散策略选择标准，以选择与调查数据最一致的扩散策略。研究小组由两名海洋生态学家、一名统计学家和一名物理海洋学家组成。拟议的工作将为理解各种物种的扩散策略提供一般工具。气候变化可能会改变海洋环流模式，我们对扩散策略的深入了解有助于预测气候变化对海洋生物种群波动的影响。这些方法可以扩展到评估使用其他媒介(如风)进行传播的生物体的传播策略。实施拟议方法的计算机程序包将向公众免费提供。该团队将继续保持培养博士生进行跨学科研究的良好记录。

Marine organisms often undergo a long dispersion stage in order to migrate from a spawning ground (source) to favorable nursery grounds (sink), a process that is essential for their long-term survival. Various species may adopt different dispersal strategies to harness ocean circulation for successful dispersion. Yet much is unknown about such dispersion processes given the difficulty of direct observation and tracking minute marine organisms during their dispersion stage. This proposal is about using ocean circulation models coupled with field data of the organisms? distribution to both rebuild drift pathways and to predict the most likely source location and timing of drift initialization. The focus of the analysis is on few species of fish and jellyfish. These organisms represent opposite ecological spectrums. Fish disperse mostly during the early life stages (eggs and larvae) while jellyfish disperse during the adult stages. A new class of semiparametric dynamic spatial regression models is proposed and the development of new statistical tools for sink-source reconstruction, and assessment of various dispersal strategies. The proposed methods provide a novel framework for assessing the significance of dispersal duration, spawning time distribution, and the contribution of organisms from particular sources. Furthermore, a dispersal-strategy selection criterion will be developped that will pick the dispersal strategy most consistent with survey data.The research team consists of two marine ecologists, one statistician and one physical oceanographer. The proposed work will provide general tools for understanding the dispersal strategies of various species. Climate change may alter ocean circulation patterns, and our increased understanding of dispersal strategies can be useful for predicting the effects of climate change on population fluctuations of marine organisms. The methods may be extended for assessing dispersal strategies for organisms that use other media for their dispersal, e.g. wind. A computer package implementing the proposed methods will be freely available to the public. The team will continue to maintain strong record of training PhD students in cross-disciplinary research.