High-resolution climate modeling: The influence of weather and sea ice noise on polar climates

高分辨率气候模型：天气和海冰噪声对极地气候的影响

• 批准号: 0938204
• 负责人: Cecilia Bitz
• 金额: $ 12.92万
• 依托单位: University of Washington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2012-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0938204&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: resolution; climate; modeling; influence; weather

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5). This project will investigate the influence of weather and sea ice noise on polar climates using a modeling technique that has been applied extensively to study the El Nino Southern Oscillation but never before to high latitudes and never at high resolution. The method, known as an interactive ensemble (IE), applies ensemble averaging to the atmosphere, and, in this project, to sea ice fields before they are exchanged with the ocean and land. The IE approach eliminates the influence of high-frequency atmospheric and sea ice variability on the ocean and land, and isolates the coupled intrinsic variability in the climate system. The integrations will be conducted at very high resolution to better resolve physical processes such as turbulent eddies and their role in the mean climate and climate variability. The IE at high resolution holds great promise as a technique for seasonal to annual forecasts as it eliminates uncertainty owing to unresolved spatial scales and unpredictable weather and sea ice noise. The IE approach will be applied to three fundamental problems. The first is to quantify seasonal to interannual predictability of the Arctic atmosphere and sea ice cover when coupled to an ocean with intrinsic variability alone. The second is to determine how characteristics of high-latitude atmospheric variability, such as the annular modes, are coupled to intrinsic variability in the ocean and land. The third is to investigate how variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) depends on the atmospheric weather and sea ice noise. Broader impacts involve the growing need that society and government have for regional predictions in high northern latitudes. They are especially important in the Arctic, where climate change is already taking place at a fast pace and interannual variability in the sea ice appears to be growing as well.

该奖项是根据2009年《美国复苏和再投资法案》(公法111-5)提供资金的。这个项目将使用一种建模技术来调查天气和海冰噪声对极地气候的影响，这种建模技术已经被广泛应用于研究厄尔尼诺南方涛动，但以前从未在高纬度使用过，也从未在高分辨率下使用过。这种方法被称为交互集合(IE)，将集合平均应用于大气，在本项目中，应用于与海洋和陆地交换之前的海冰场。IE方法消除了高频大气和海冰变化对海洋和陆地的影响，并隔离了气候系统中耦合的内在变化。积分将以非常高的分辨率进行，以更好地解决物理过程，如湍流涡旋及其在平均气候和气候变率中的作用。高分辨率的IE作为一种季节性到年度预报的技术前景很好，因为它消除了由于未确定的空间尺度以及不可预测的天气和海冰噪声造成的不确定性。IE方法将应用于三个基本问题。第一个是量化北极大气和海冰复盖的季节和年际可预测性，当它们与仅具有内在变异性的海洋相联系时。第二是确定高纬度大气可变性的特征，如环状模式，如何与海洋和陆地的内在可变性相联系。第三个是研究大西洋子午线翻转环流(AMOC)的变化如何依赖于大气天气和海冰噪声。更广泛的影响涉及到社会和政府对北部高纬度地区预测的日益增长的需求。它们在北极地区尤其重要，那里的气候变化已经在快速发生，海冰的年际变化似乎也在增加。