The housing environment and ambient temperature (HEAT) study

住房环境和环境温度（HEAT）研究

• 批准号: 10658274
• 负责人: Leah H Schinasi
• 金额: $ 51.49万
• 依托单位: DREXEL UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2023-09-01 至 2027-05-31
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/10658274
• 关键词: Acute; Age; Aging; American; Behavior; Biological; Cardiovascular Diseases; Cardiovascular system; Categories; Cause of Death; Censuses; Cessation of life; Characteristics; Chronic; Climate; Communities; Cox Proportional Hazards Models; Data; Data Set; Elderly; Environment; Equilibrium; Europe; Event; Future; Goals; Health; Health protection; Heat Waves; Household; Housing; Humidity; Individual; Intervention; Kidney Diseases; Knowledge; Link; Longitudinal Studies; Longitudinal cohort study; Measures; Medicare; Meta-Analysis; Modeling; Morbidity - disease rate; Neighborhoods; Outcome; Participant; Persons; Physics; Predisposition; Probability; Quasi-experiment; Research; Resolution; Respiratory Disease; Risk; Savings; Seasons; Selection Bias; Subgroup; Temperature; Time; Typology; Uncertainty; United States; Urbanicity; Urbanization; Weather; Work; built environment; climate change; climate zone; cohort; cost; design; econometrics; effective intervention; enhancing factor; extreme heat; flexibility; follow-up; future climate scenario; greenhouse gases; human old age (65+); improved; indexing; land cover; meteorological data; models and simulation; mortality; mortality disparity; population based; premature; prevent; residence; respiratory; social; sociodemographics; synergism; therapy design

Abstract Without intervention, by the end of this century, extreme heat will cause tens of thousands of excess deaths, particularly from respiratory and cardiovascular causes. Beyond the impacts of short-duration heat events, such as heat waves, it is critical to understand the effects of chronic heat exposure, assessed where most heat-related deaths occur: indoors. Improving understanding of individual and neighborhood characteristics that heighten or reduce heat vulnerability is also crucial, for informing the design of effective heat adaptation strategies. Yet, current knowledge of heat-related mortality and vulnerability remains limited in at least three ways. First, most research on heat-related death has quantified associations between short-term temperature spikes and acute mortality outcomes, leaving uncertainty about the total mortality burden of chronic heat exposure. Second, most research has calculated associations with outdoor rather than indoor temperatures, thus potentially under-estimating the mortality impacts of heat and leaving critical gaps in knowledge about safe maximum indoor temperature thresholds. Third, little is known about the extent to which housing interventions that promote thermal comfort and conserve energy, such as improving insulation or altering roofing material, may prevent excess deaths from chronic indoor heat exposure. There is an urgent need to fill these gaps since most people, and especially heat vulnerable subpopulations including individuals over age 65, spend the majority of their time indoors. We propose the first ever population-based, nationally representative, quasi-experimental, longitudinal cohort study of the effects of chronic indoor heat exposure on mortality in the United States. We will use data on age 65 and older adult participants of the Mortality Disparities in America Communities (MDAC) study linked with Medicare and National Death Index data. This remarkably rich data set, which contains follow up on individuals for up to eight years, will be combined with indoor temperature and humidity variables calculated using rigorous, extensively validated, physics-based simulation models; individual-level housing characteristics; and high-resolution land cover data. To improve understanding of associations between the housing environment, chronic indoor heat exposures and mortality, and person- and neighborhood-level determinants of heat vulnerability, we pursue three aims. In Aim 1, we quantify associations between chronic indoor heat exposures and all-cause and cause-specific mortality, and identify climate-zone specific, safe upper thresholds for hot-season indoor temperatures. In Aim 2, we elucidate person- and neighborhood-level factors that enhance or reduce vulnerability to chronic indoor heat exposure. In Aim 3, we quantify the total excess deaths that may be prevented through housing interventions that improve thermal comfort, under current and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. This impactful project will provide information that is critically needed to guide interventions that balance heat adaptation for health protection in the most vulnerable subgroups with climate change mitigation goals.

摘要 如果不进行干预，到本世纪末，极端高温将导致数万人死亡， 特别是呼吸道和心血管疾病。除了短期高温事件的影响， 例如热浪，了解慢性热暴露的影响至关重要， 与热有关死亡发生在室内。提高对个人和社区特征的理解 提高或降低热易损性对于设计有效的热适应性也是至关重要的 战略布局然而，目前对与热有关的死亡率和脆弱性的了解仍然有限，至少在三个方面， 的方式首先，大多数关于热相关死亡的研究都量化了短期温度与 高峰和急性死亡率结果，留下了关于慢性炎热的总死亡率负担的不确定性 exposure.其次，大多数研究都计算了与室外温度而不是室内温度的关系， 因此，可能低估了高温对死亡率的影响，并在以下方面的知识上留下了严重的空白： 安全最高室内温度阈值。第三，人们对住房在多大程度上 促进热舒适和节能的干预措施，如改善绝缘或改变 屋顶材料，可以防止长期室内热暴露造成的过度死亡。迫切需要填补 这些差距，因为大多数人，特别是热脆弱的亚群，包括个人超过年龄 65岁，大部分时间都呆在室内。我们提出了有史以来第一个以人口为基础的，全国性的 慢性室内热暴露对健康影响的代表性、准实验性、纵向队列研究 死亡率在美国。我们将使用65岁和老年参与者的死亡率数据， 美国社区差异（MDAC）研究与医疗保险和国家死亡指数数据有关。这 非常丰富的数据集，其中包含长达八年的个人随访，将与 室内温度和湿度变量使用严格的、经过广泛验证的、基于物理的 模拟模型;个人住房特征;高分辨率土地覆盖数据。提高 了解住房环境、长期室内热暴露和死亡率之间的关系， 和个人和邻里水平的热脆弱性的决定因素，我们追求三个目标。目标1： 量化慢性室内热暴露与全因和特定原因死亡率之间的关联， 确定特定于气候区域的、安全的炎热季节室内温度上限。在目标2中， 阐明个人和邻里水平的因素，增强或减少对慢性室内热的脆弱性 exposure.在目标3中，我们量化了通过住房干预可以预防的超额死亡总数 在当前和未来的温室气体排放情景下，改善热舒适度。这种影响力 该项目将提供急需的信息，以指导平衡热适应的干预措施， 最脆弱亚群体的健康保护，以减缓气候变化为目标。