CDI-Type II: Collaborative Proposal: The political and security impacts of abrupt climate change on modern populations: An integrated computational model

自20世纪70年代以来，气候科学家开发了越来越复杂的世界气候系统模型。这些模型集中在对未来几十年可能发生的气候变化的预测上。这样的变化肯定会激起人类的反应，许多评论员已经暗示，在世界的特定地区，这些反应可能是什么。然而，人类人口是一个复杂的系统，其中系统的一个部分的变化可能会对系统的其他部分产生重大影响，这意味着人类对气候变化的反应也必须作为一个复杂系统中的过程来研究，这个复杂系统可能至少涉及所有人类社会。然而，到目前为止，社会科学还没有提出整合气候模型预测的大规模人类人口系统的模型。这种忽视的一个原因可能是，这种工作不仅需要了解人类行为的基本原则和建模技术，而且还需要了解(1)当前的气候模型；(2)地理信息系统(GIS)，它提供了一种组织世界范围内的地理数据的手段，包括人口数据；(3)统计技术，用于分析人口模拟产生的大量数据；(4)人类对最近过去(例如达尔富尔)和更遥远的过去(例如古代玛雅)的气候变化的实际反应。因此，本项目包括两名有行为建模背景的政治学家；一名在气候建模方面有广泛工作的气候学家；一名地理信息系统专家；一名应用数学和统计学专家；以及一名考古学家。向行为模式迈出的初步步骤将对照最近(例如达尔富尔)和更遥远的过去(例如玛雅人崩溃)的已知气候变化案例进行测试。在这种情况下，如果发展中模型的预测与已知的人类反应不匹配，它的参数将被调整--并随后针对更多的此类情况进行测试。考古证据表明，气候变化在过去破坏了许多文明，但气候变化本身的破坏性往往小于人类对这些变化的反应--包括大规模移徙和武装冲突。在相互依存的现代世界中，人类对气候变化的反应有可能远远超出直接受影响的地区，而在不同的地区，也许是相当偏远的地区，对这种变化的反应可能会以消极的方式相互作用。因此，对人类对预期气候变化的可能反应--包括突然变化--的良好模型将使政策制定者不仅能够预测当地气候变化的局部后果，而且还能够预测地理上可能相当遥远的后果。该项目朝着人类应对气候变化的更全面的模型迈出了初步的一步，就像早期的气候模型现在可以被视为朝着目前存在的更全面的气候模型迈出的第一步一样。

Since the 1970s, climate scientists have developed increasingly sophisticated models of the world climate system. These models are converging on predictions about climate changes that are likely to occur in coming decades. Such changes are certain to provoke human responses and many commentators have suggested what those responses are likely to be in particular parts of the world. Nevertheless, human populations are complex systems in which changes in one part of the system can have significant consequences for other, perhaps quite remote, parts of the system - meaning that human responses to climate change must also be studied as processes in a complex system involving, potentially at least, all human societies. To date, however, the social sciences have not produced models of large scale human population systems that integrate predictions from climate models. One reason for this neglect may be that such work requires knowledge not only of the basic principles of human behavior and the techniques for modeling it, but also of (1) current climate models; (2) geographic information systems (GIS) which provide a means for organizing geographic data worldwide, including human population data; (3) statistical techniques for analyzing the large amounts of data produced from population simulations; and (4) actual human responses to climate changes both in the recent past (e.g., Darfur) and in the more remote past (e.g., ancient Maya). Accordingly, the present project includes two political scientists with background in behavioral modeling; a climatologist who has worked extensively on climate modeling; an expert in geographic information systems; an expert in applied mathematics and statistics; and an archaeologist. Initial steps toward the behavioral model will be tested against known cases of climate change in the recent past (e.g. Darfur) and the more remote past (e.g., the Mayan collapse). To the extent predictions from the developing model do not match known human responses in such cases, its parameters will be adjusted - and, subsequently, tested against further such cases. Archaeological evidence shows that climate change has undermined many civilizations in the past but also that the climate changes per se were often less damaging than the human responses to those changes - including mass migration and armed conflict. In the interdependent modern world, human responses to climate changes have the potential to ripple well beyond an immediately affected area, and responses to such changes in different and perhaps quite remote areas might interact in negative ways. Thus, well developed models of likely human responses to expected climate changes - including abrupt changes - will allow policy makers to anticipate not only local consequences of local climate changes, but also geographically perhaps quite remote consequences. The project takes initial steps toward more fully developed models of human responses to climate change, just as early climate models can now be seen as initial steps toward the more fully developed climate models that presently exist.