Workshop on Modeling the Financial Crisis from the Bottom Up

传统的金融和宏观经济模型已被证明在预测、限制或补救当前金融衰退方面效用有限。本次研讨会将侧重于传统DSGE宏观经济模型的复杂性理论替代方案。具体地说，将强调在国家一级建立大规模、分布式经济现象模型的基于行动者的方法。与会者将讨论基础研究的优先事项，以最迅速地取得有用模型的进展，并探讨协调发展下一代经济模型的计划。参与者将来自经济学和金融学、计算机科学和多智能体系统、物理学，以及公共和私营部门的模型用户。即使我们的经济建模能力有一点点提高，也会对更好的政策制定和更强劲的经济产生有价值的影响。此外：应用于经济的复杂性建模方法上的进步也将对其他重要的复杂实体（如政治系统、组织系统和系统）的建模有用。

Conventional financial and macroeconomic models have been demonstrated to be of limited utility in either forecasting, limiting, or remedying the current financial downturn. This workshop will focus on complexity-theoretic alternatives to traditional DSGE macroeconomic models. Specifically, agent-based approaches for building large-scale, distributed models of economic phenomena at the country-level will be highlighted. Attendees will discuss priorities for basic research to make progress toward useful models most expeditiously and explore plans for coordinating to develop next-generation modeling of economies. Participants will come from economics and finance, computer science and multi-agent systems, and physics, as well as public and private sector model users.Even a slight improvement in our ability to model the economy would have valuable implications for better policy making and mroe robust economies. Also: methodological advances in complexity modeling that apply to economies will also be useful for modeling other important complex entities, like political systems, organizational systems, and systems.