The Sciences of Ice and the West Antarctica Problem: Geophysics, Glaciology, and Geology, 1945-present

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The Sciences of Ice and the West Antarctica Problem: Geophysics, Glaciology, and Geology, 1945-presentWilliam ThomasAmerican Institute of Physics, Center for History of PhysicsCollege Park, MarylandAbstract This project examines the history of research on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), placing it in the context of other contemporary research in the fields of geophysics, glaciology, and geology in Antarctica and elsewhere. Since the 1970s, WAIS has been of special scientific interest because the fact that it rests on bedrock below sea level suggests the possibility that WAIS could be inherently vulnerable to disintegration on a time scale of centuries. This would lead to rises in sea level of approximately five meters. This possibility was initially raised because it was thought that WAIS disintegration might play a role in the planet's long-term climate cycles. Since about 1980, it has been feared that accelerated climate change due to human activity might trigger or hasten such a disintegration. On this basis, the question of WAIS disintegration has motivated the construction of special research programs (funded largely by the National Science Foundation), the holding of workshops and conferences dedicated to the subject, and the integration of WAIS research into climate change assessments, such as those conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The proposal of the possibility of rapid WAIS disintegration, and the subsequent investigation of its likelihood and timescale, have involved the integration of disparate traditions of scientific research, including the geological reconstruction of the Earth's climate history, the suggestion of mechanisms governing that history, the field investigation of ice behavior, and the construction of mathematical and computer-simulated models of ice behavior, all of which have also been integrated with broader research programs dedicated to the study of planet-wide climate change. This project will study the ways these lines of scientific research have been integrated, contextualizing each line as arising from a distinct tradition, and will make results available via publications and a web resource.