Collaborative Research: Choosing a Portfolio of Technology Policies in an Uncertain World

要在不损害经济的情况下解决气候变化问题，就需要大幅改进能源技术。这些改进取决于对新知识的投资和生产——无论是在实验室还是在商业应用中。众所周知，由于知识的特殊性，私营企业很难完全控制知识并从中获利。因此，有人认为，需要政府的支持来确保机会不被浪费。文献清楚地表明，多重市场失灵和多种技术选择的存在意味着，好的政府政策需要有解决一系列技术问题的政策组合。然而，有许多可能的多元化投资组合。本研究将科学应用于科学和创新政策，以估计技术政策工具组合对气候和经济的影响。知识价值：该项目旨在为设计应对气候变化的技术政策组合提供一个框架。当技术政策的结果和气候变化的影响都不确定时，研究人员建立了政策工具组合对技术组合的影响模型。该项目评估了三种政策工具的组合：政府资助的研发；对需求的补贴；还有碳价格。它侧重于两项重要技术：太阳能光伏和碳捕获与储存（CCS），同时制定了一个框架，可以考虑更大范围的技术。该项目涉及的一些关键问题是：-在选择研发和补贴的最佳组合时，哪些因素是最重要的？这种混合是如何随着气候损害的不确定性增加而变化的？-是什么驱动了两种技术组合的最佳组合？-研发和补贴在多大程度上影响减少排放的最佳水平？-补贴提供的对冲价值有多大？研究人员收集并使用专家的启发来估计研发投资产生CCS技术改进的可能性。同时迭代地，他们开发了一个自下而上的成本模型，以估计随着CCS技术部署的扩展，规模经济和边做边学的成本降低预期。他们实现了这个模型？还有早期的太阳能光伏模型？纳入综合评估模型，以便优化旨在降低减缓气候变化成本的政策工具组合。这种配置允许在损害和技术成果的不同概率分布下对政策选择进行成本效益优化。更广泛的影响：有助于改善公共资金分配的改进模型可能会产生重要的财政影响。此外，该研究将为课程的发展提供信息，并训练学生建立公共政策模型。

Addressing climate change without damaging the economy will require substantial improvements to energy technologies. These improvements depend on investments in, and the production of, new knowledge -- both in the laboratory and in commercial use. Because knowledge, due to its special nature, is notoriously difficult for private firms to control and profit from exclusively, it is argued that government support is required to assure that opportunities are not squandered. The literature is clear that the presence of multiple market failures and multiple technical options means that good government policy needs to have a portfolio of policies addressing a portfolio of technologies. However, there are many possible diversified portfolios. This research applies science to science and innovation policy in order to estimate the consequences of combinations of technology policy instruments on the climate and on the economy.Intellectual Merit: This project aims to provide a framework for designing a portfolio of technology policies to address climate change. The researchers model the effects of combinations of policy instruments on a portfolio of technologies, when both the outcomes of the technology policies and the effects of climate change are uncertain. The project evaluates combinations of three policy instruments: government funded R&D; subsidies for demand; and carbon prices. It focuses on two important technologies: solar PV and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), while developing a framework amenable to the consideration of a larger set of technologies. Some of the key questions the project addresses are:- What factors are most important in choosing the best the mix of R&D and Subsidies? How does this mix change with increasing uncertainty in climate damages?- What drives the optimal mix of a two-technology portfolio?- To what extent do R&D and subsidies affect the optimal level of emissions abatement?- How large is the hedging value that subsidies provide? The researchers collect and use expert elicitations to estimate the probability of R&D investment producing technical improvements in CCS. Simultaneously and iteratively, they develop a bottom-up cost model to estimate the cost reductions expected from both economies of scale and learning-by-doing as deployment of CCS technology expands. They implement this model?along with an earlier model of solar PV?into an Integrated Assessment Model, allowing for the optimization of portfolios of policy instruments designed to reduce the cost of climate change mitigation. This configuration allows cost benefit optimization of policy choices under varying probability distributions over damages and technical outcomes.Broader Impact: Improved models that help improve the allocation of public funds could have an important fiscal impact. In addition, the research will inform the development of classes and train students in public policy model building.