Doctoral dissertation Research: Transmission Mechanisms of Trade Shocks

博士论文研究：贸易冲击的传导机制

• 批准号: 0962616
• 负责人: Samuel Kortum
• 金额: $ 1.08万
• 依托单位: University of Chicago
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-02-15 至 2011-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0962616&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; dissertation; Research; Transmission; Mechanisms

Transmission Mechanisms of Trade ShocksThis project studies how the productivity and welfare consequences of international trade shocks spread within a country, from the industries in which they first hit to the whole economy. The transmission of productivity and wage changes implied by a larger export propensity or import penetration follow paths of least resistance determined jointly by (a) sector-specific techology, (b) correlation across different types of knowledge in the workers` population, and (c) spatial relations across locations. The first element influences which types of occupations are relatively more affected by trade shocks initially; the second element determines the adjustments in relative wages vs. quantities across the workers' knowledge space; the third element defines local scarcity of different types of knowledge, i.e. the elasticities of local labor demand and supply functions for different occupations. Given initial conditions on each of these components, shocks diffuse with predictable patterns across workers, firms, and locations. The evidence on these issues will be provided by twenty years of data from an employer-employee matched dataset representative of the French employment. From this data, the PI's can extract occupational choices, infer commuting patterns at a very fine geographical detail (around 37,000 French towns) and match these outcomes with domestic and export behavior of establishments. These data provide a truly unique opportunity for studying the geographical and occupational diffusion of trade shocks. This study develops the conjecture that workers' choices, along the occupation and job location margin, at the same time (a) act as a transmission mechanism and (b) allow (or hinder) the gains in productivity through reallocation emphasized by well established development in the international trade theory. A clear understanding of how trade shocks unfold is essential to identifying the disruptive and productive consequences of trade. This research will develop an empirical methodology to (a) quantify the speed and deepness of the geographic diffusion process, (b) assess the relative importance of adjustments in wages, employments and occupation, (c) measure local and aggregate gains in productivity through factors'reallocation, and (d) emphasize the geographic component of heterogeneity in these adjustments. These advancements will contribute to give sounder estimates of the magnitude and distribution across workers of gains and losses from trade, and comes at a time where micro-level data on workers and firms choices and locations is increasingly available for developed and developing countries. This project will provide a firmer basis for counterfactual trade policy analysis for the application of old trade policies to new environments, or the implementation of completely new policies, providing a bridge between the theory of international trade, the literature on program evaluation, and the real-life consequences of policy choices.

贸易冲击的传导机制本项目研究国际贸易冲击对生产力和福利的影响如何在一个国家内从最初受到冲击的行业扩散到整个经济。较大的出口倾向或进口渗透所暗示的生产率和工资变化的传导遵循以下因素共同决定的阻力最小的路径：(a)特定部门技术，(b)工人人口中不同类型知识之间的相关性，以及(c)跨地点的空间关系。第一个因素影响到哪些类型的职业最初受到贸易冲击的影响相对更大；第二个因素决定了工人知识空间中相对工资与数量的调整；第三个要素定义了不同类型知识的本地稀缺性，即不同职业的本地劳动力需求和供给函数的弹性。给定这些组成部分的初始条件，冲击就会以可预测的模式在工人、企业和地点之间扩散。这些问题的证据将由代表法国就业的雇主-雇员匹配数据集20年的数据提供。从这些数据中，PI可以提取职业选择，推断出非常精细的地理细节（大约37,000个法国城镇）的通勤模式，并将这些结果与企业的国内和出口行为相匹配。这些数据为研究贸易冲击的地域和职业扩散提供了一个真正独特的机会。本研究提出了这样一个猜想，即工人的选择，沿着职业和工作地点的边际，同时(a)作为一种传导机制，(b)允许（或阻碍）通过国际贸易理论中公认的发展所强调的再配置来提高生产率。清楚地了解贸易冲击是如何展开的，对于确定贸易的破坏性和生产性后果至关重要。本研究将发展一种实证方法来(a)量化地理扩散过程的速度和深度，(b)评估工资、就业和职业调整的相对重要性，(c)通过要素再分配衡量地方和总体生产率的收益，以及(d)强调这些调整中异质性的地理组成部分。这些进步将有助于对贸易的收益和损失在工人之间的大小和分布进行更合理的估计，同时，发达国家和发展中国家越来越多地可以获得关于工人和公司选择和地点的微观数据。该项目将为将旧贸易政策应用于新环境或实施全新政策的反事实贸易政策分析提供更坚实的基础，在国际贸易理论、项目评估文献和政策选择的现实后果之间架起一座桥梁。