AGCI Interdisciplinary Science Workshop: Decadal Climate Prediction and Services; Aspen, Colorado; September 20-25, 2009

气候模拟、观测和用户群体的一项重要需求是能够向资源管理者和决策者提供空间和时间尺度的效用气候预测。粗分辨率全球气候模式（GCMs）不是为此目的而设计的；然而，为此目的正在开发模型设计、计算能力和各种策略方面的改进。阿斯彭全球变化研究所（AGCI）在2006年的一次会议上提出了下一轮协调气候变化实验的实验设计，其中明确包括短期气候预测，供国际气候模拟界进行评估。这次研讨会建立在最近几次努力的基础上，包括去年关于十年预测的AGCI研讨会和关于气候变化、自然变率和极端事件的几次研讨会。该研讨会还以2004年的研讨会为基础，旨在弥合区域范围内建模、场景和用户社区之间的差距。它直接是去年举行的十年预测研讨会的后续活动，其目的是让用户社区更直接地参与探索现在和不久的将来的气候建模能力，以及如何将这种能力整合到资源管理中。

An important need in the climate modeling, observational and user communities is to be able to provide climate projections at spatial and temporal scales of utility to resource managers and decision makers. Coarse resolution global climate models (GCMs) were not designed for this purpose; however, improvements in model design, computing capacity, and various strategies are being developed for this purpose. An Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) session in 2006 proposed experimental design for the next round of coordinated climate change experiments that explicitly included short-term climate predictions to be performed for assessment by the international climate modeling community. This workshop builds upon several recent efforts including an AGCI workshop last year on decadal prediction and several on climate change, natural variability, and extremes. This workshop also builds upon a 2004 workshop aimed at bridging the gap between the modeling, scenarios, and user communities at the regional scale. It directly is a follow-up to the decadal prediction workshop held last year with the aim of engaging the user community more directly in exploring climate modeling capability now and in the near future and how this capability can be integrated into resource management.