Making Sense of the Multi-Model Decadal Prediction Experiments from CMIP5 Workshop; Aspen, Co; June 26 - July 1, 2011

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This award provides funds to support a Workshop entitled Making Sense of the multi-model decadal prediction experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This Workshop will bring together researchers, primarily from the high-end climate modeling centers, with an objective to devise an analysis and evaluation methodology for the suite of decadal simulations. The Aspen Global Change Institute will also document the entire proceedings (e.g. power point presentations, background papers and supplementary references) at its website www.agci.org Methodologies essential for quantifying the reliability and credibility of decadal simulations will be developed, thus the intellectual merit is high. The Workshop will facilitate collaboration and analysis of the decadal prediction model output produced thus far and scientific results will be synthesized in a timely manner for inclusion in the IPCC AR5. One of the deliverables from this Workshop will be a peer-reviewed journal article that will be assessed as part of the forthcoming report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC AR5). Thus the broader impacts of the activity is also high.