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Modeling the Greenland ice sheet response to climate change on different timescales

模拟格陵兰冰盖在不同时间尺度对气候变化的响应

基本信息

批准号：
196658745
负责人：
Dr. Andrey Ganopolski
金额：
--
依托单位：
Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2011
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2010-12-31 至 2015-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/196658745?language=en
关键词：
Modeling Greenland ice sheet response

项目摘要

The Greenland ice sheet could potentially contribute up to 7 m to sea level rise in the coming millennia due to anthropogenic global warming. As temperatures increase, the ice sheet experiences more surface melt and will eventually no longer be able to sustain its current size. It is generally believed that if the global Earth’s temperature will exceed a certain threshold value, the Greenland ice sheet will eventually melt completely. However, the magnitude of global warming which will lead to crossing this threshold is not well known. The sensitivity of the ice sheet to climate change on long timescales will largely depend on surface mass balance change. In this project, a novel approach will be developed for modeling the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet by using a regional climate model of intermediate complexity coupled to an ice sheet model via a physically-based surface energy and mass balance interface. Such an approach will allow us to perform a large ensemble of long-term simulations of the Greenland ice sheet under different climate change scenarios to refine estimates of the Greenland ice sheet sensitivity to climate change and the critical climate thresholds leading to its complete melting. With this project, we will contribute to a better understanding of the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to future sea level rise and to the assessment of the probability of irreversible changes in the Earth system.

由于人类活动导致的全球变暖，格陵兰冰盖可能在未来千年内导致海平面上升7米。随着温度的升高，冰盖表面融化的更多，最终将无法维持目前的规模。一般认为，如果全球的地球温度将超过一定的阈值，格陵兰冰盖最终将完全融化。然而，全球变暖的程度将导致跨越这一门槛并不为人所知。冰盖对长期气候变化的敏感性将在很大程度上取决于表面物质平衡的变化。在这个项目中，将开发一种新的方法来模拟格陵兰冰盖的表面质量平衡，通过使用一个中等复杂性的区域气候模型，通过一个基于物理的表面能量和质量平衡界面耦合到冰盖模型。这种方法将使我们能够在不同的气候变化情景下对格陵兰冰盖进行大量的长期模拟，以改进格陵兰冰盖对气候变化的敏感性以及导致其完全融化的关键气候阈值的估计。通过这个项目，我们将有助于更好地了解格陵兰冰盖对未来海平面上升的影响，并有助于评估地球系统发生不可逆转变化的可能性。