权益分类	功能权益	普通用户	{{item.name}}会员
{{category.name}}	{{benefitItem.name}}

Simulation and understanding of the major transitions in Quaternary climate dynamics

第四纪气候动力学重大转变的模拟和理解

基本信息

批准号：
251168576
负责人：
Dr. Andrey Ganopolski
金额：
--
依托单位：
Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)
依托单位国家：
德国
项目类别：
Research Grants
财政年份：
2013
资助国家：
德国
起止时间：
2012-12-31 至 2016-12-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/251168576?language=en
关键词：
Simulation understanding major transitions Quaternary

项目摘要

Understanding climate variability during the past 3 million years remains a scientific challenge. Paleoclimate records provide rich information about Quaternary climate cycles and reveal several pronounced changes in the regimes of climate variability. The mechanisms of these transitions are still not properly understood. Although a number of hypotheses have been proposed, testing of these hypotheses is hampered by the lack of an appropriate modeling tool. We propose to study the nature of these regime changes with a new Earth system model of intermediate complexity, which will be developed based on the existent and comprehensively tested model CLIMBER-2. Although the new model will have higher spatial resolution than CLIMBER-2, it will be still be computationally efficient to enable us to perform experiments at million-year time scales. Using an ensemble of model realizations obtained by a perturbed physics approach, we will perform a set of transient experiments to test existing hypotheses concerning the mechanisms of the Pliocene-Pleistocene Transition (ca. 2.7 Ma), Mid-Pliocene Revolution (between 1.2 and 0.8 Ma) and Mid-Brunhes Event (ca. 430 ka). The final goal is to reproduce these transitions using orbital forcing as the only prescribed forcing while atmospheric composition, evolution of terrestrial sediment layer and aeloian dust transport and deposition will be simulated by the model. With this we expect to make a substantial progress in understanding the non-linear dynamics of the principal components of the Earth system, such as ice sheets, ocean circulation and carbon cycle, as well as the role of various climate feedbacks. We will also assess a possibility of using the available plaeoclimate information about climate variability over the past 3 million years to provide better constraints on Earth system sensitivity and stability to external forcings and internal perturbations.

了解过去300万年的气候变化仍然是一项科学挑战。古气候记录提供了有关第四纪气候循环的丰富信息，并揭示了气候变率制度中的几个明显变化。这些转变的机制仍然没有得到正确的理解。虽然已经提出了一些假设，这些假设的测试是阻碍了缺乏适当的建模工具。我们建议研究这些政权变化的性质与一个新的地球系统模型的中间复杂性，这将是现有的和全面测试的模型CLIMBER-2的基础上开发的。尽管新模型的空间分辨率比CLIBER-2更高，但它仍然具有计算效率，使我们能够在百万年的时间尺度上进行实验。使用通过扰动物理方法获得的模型实现的集合，我们将进行一组瞬态实验来测试现有的关于上新世-更新世过渡机制的假设（约200年）。2.7中上新世革命（1.2 ~ 0.8 Ma）和中布鲁赫事件（约1.8 ~ 1.8 Ma）。430 ka）。最终目标是使用轨道强迫作为唯一规定的强迫来再现这些转变，而大气成分、陆地沉积层的演变和埃洛扬尘埃输送和沉积将由该模型模拟。有了这个，我们期望在理解地球系统主要组成部分的非线性动力学方面取得实质性进展，例如冰盖，海洋环流和碳循环，以及各种气候反馈的作用。我们还将评估利用过去300万年来有关气候变化的现有古气候信息的可能性，以更好地约束地球系统对外部强迫和内部扰动的敏感性和稳定性。