GOALI: A Phased Approach for Investigating Trust and Trustworthiness in Forecast Information Sharing

GOALI：调查预测信息共享中的信任和可信度的分阶段方法

• 批准号: 1002381
• 负责人: Ozalp Ozer
• 金额: $ 27.86万
• 依托单位: University of Texas at Dallas
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-01-15 至 2012-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1002381&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: GOALI; Phased; Approach; Investigating; Trust

This grant provides funding for determining the role of trust in forecast information sharing. Consider, for example, the process through which a manufacturer (such as Hewlett-Packard) solicits forecast information from a retailer (such as BestBuy). The manufacturer uses this forecast information to plan for production and capacity. When the communication is non-binding, the retailer has an incentive to inflate demand forecast to assure abundant supply. The lack of credible information sharing leads to well-documented catastrophic outcomes. Yet, some firms manage to share information credibly even when communication is non-binding. In this research, predictive mathematical models and human-subject experiments will be developed to determine how the level of trust and trustworthiness among firms affect forecast information sharing and decision-making. These models will be validated with empirical data to ensure their applicability and abilities in predicting actions.The primary goal is to develop a scientific understanding of trust and trustworthiness in strategic forecast information sharing. A new mathematical theory will be developed to model trust and enhance the neoclassical economic models (such as, game-theory) that assume humans make decisions based on pecuniary payoffs with self-interested motives. The new theory will provide a framework to estimate the level of trust (that the manufacturer has for the supplier's information) and trustworthiness (that impedes the retailer to inflate forecast information). This new model will help prescribe policies to better coordinate forecast information sharing and optimize decisions, such as capacity investment. The research will determine when trust can facilitate cooperation and how trusting behavior alters a firm?s forecast management and contracting strategy.Conceivably, this research may also help develop a new paradigm in designing contracts that include considerations of trust, non-pecuniary issues and human emotions. Since this project is in collaboration with Hewlett Packard, the results is likely to be transferred into business practices.

这笔赠款为确定信任在预测信息共享中的作用提供资金。例如，考虑制造商(如惠普)向零售商(如百思买)征求预测信息的过程。制造商使用这些预测信息来计划生产和产能。当沟通不具约束力时，零售商有动机夸大需求预测，以确保充足的供应。缺乏可信的信息共享导致了有据可查的灾难性后果。然而，一些公司即使在沟通不具约束力的情况下，也能可信地分享信息。在这项研究中，将开发预测数学模型和人体主体实验，以确定企业之间的信任和可信度水平如何影响预测信息共享和决策。这些模型将通过经验数据进行验证，以确保它们在预测行动中的适用性和能力。主要目标是发展对战略预测信息共享中的信任和可信度的科学理解。将开发一种新的数学理论来模拟信任，并加强新古典主义经济模型(如博弈论)，这些模型假设人类出于自利动机根据金钱回报做出决定。这一新理论将提供一个框架，以估计制造商对供应商信息的信任程度和可信度(这会阻止零售商夸大预测信息)。这一新模式将有助于制定政策，以更好地协调预测信息共享和优化决策，如产能投资。这项研究将确定信任何时能够促进合作，信任行为如何改变企业？S预测了管理和合同战略。可以想见，这项研究也可能有助于开发一种新的合同设计范式，包括信任、非金钱问题和人类情感。由于这个项目是与惠普合作的，结果很可能会转化为商业实践。