IDR: Collaborative Research: Sustainable Water Resources for Communities under Climate Change: Can State-of-the-Art Forecasting Inform Decision-Making in Data Sparse Regions?

[14615]该项目将研究墨西哥北部气候变化对水资源管理决策的影响，并作为北美西南部干旱和半干旱地区的案例研究。该项目的目标是确定在参与性框架内开发的水资源系统模型能否有助于在缺水、相互冲突的用水和高度变化和变化的气候条件下建立管理战略。当地利益相关者将参与指导供需侧管理战略的设计，并使用最先进的工程工具选择气候变化情景。这些工具包括水资源系统框架、空间显式水文模型、21世纪气候变化下气候情景预测的使用，以及从野外和卫星传感器获得的观测结果。参与性建模方法将通过一系列互动讲习班进行，这些讲习班经过精心设计，以鼓励广泛的利益攸关方实质性参与，包括联邦和地方政府机构、用水部门、非政府组织和学术界的代表。这项工作将评估各种气候变化情景产生的可持续结果，以及可在决策过程中实施的潜在适应措施。这项拟议的工作将工程研究与社会和行为科学相结合，目的是评估发展中国家半干旱地区的可持续水管理成果。三名博士生和本科生将参与短期研究。重点招收西班牙裔学生（具有语言技能）将促进与当地决策者、区域利益攸关方和公众的互动。项目团队还将与索诺拉的几所当地大学合作，制定一个有效的参与式建模方案。目标是使该项目的结果对研究地区气候变化下的水资源决策产生影响，并为在其他数据稀少的半干旱地区复制提供一个案例研究。

1014615VivoniThis project will study decision-making for water resources management in anticipation of climate change in northern Mexico as a case study for the broader arid and semiarid southwestern North America. The goal of the project is to determine whether water resources systems modeling, developed within a participatory framework, can contribute to the building of management strategies in a context of water scarcity, conflicting water uses and highly variable and changing climate conditions. Local stakeholders will be involved in guiding the design of supply- and demand-side management strategies and selection of climate change scenarios using state-of-the-art engineering tools. These tools include a water resources systems framework, a spatially-explicit hydrologic model, the use of forecasted climate scenarios under 21st century climate change, and observations obtained from field and satellite sensors. The participatory modeling approach will be conducted through a series of interactive workshops, carefully designed to encourage substantive participation from a broad range of stakeholders, including representatives from federal and local government agencies, water use sectors, non-governmental organizations, and academics. The work will evaluate the sustainable outcomes emerging from the climate change scenarios and the potential adaptations that can be implemented in the decision-making process.The proposed work combines engineering research with social and behavioral sciences for the purpose of evaluating sustainable water management outcomes in a semiarid region in a developing country. Three doctoral level students will be engaged as well as undergraduate students for short-term research experiences. A focus on recruiting Hispanic students (with language skills) will facilitate interactions with local decision makers, regional stakeholders and the general public. The project team will also work with several local universities in Sonora to develop an effective participatory modeling program. The target is for the results of this project to have an impact on water decision-making under climate change in the study area and to provide a case study for replication in other data-sparse, semiarid regions.