Livestock Movements and Disease Epidemiology in the Chad Basin: Modeling Risks for Animals and Humans

该项目将提供对宿主移动网络生态背景下传染病流行病学的理解。具体而言，目标是了解口蹄疫病毒（FMDV）在喀麦隆远北地区牲畜流动网络中的传播和维持。由于口蹄疫是地方性的，而且没有使用疫苗，该地区提供了一个前所未有的机会来研究不同的牲畜流动网络如何影响疾病流行病学。将在重叠的牲畜流动网络中收集四年的疾病发病率和流行率数据，包括每日觅食、年度季节性转移、区域市场和跨境贸易。这些数据将用于开发畜群内感染的耦合模型以及网络内和网络间畜群之间的移动和连接模型。除了开发可用于研究具有宿主移动网络的其他传染病的建模方法外，这些模型还将被喀麦隆和乍得盆地其他国家的兽医和人类卫生服务部门用于监测疾病并探索对许多疾病的可能干预措施。该项目还将包括培训爱沙尼亚兽医学生和研究人员使用该模型以及流行病学和一般建模。此外，当地牧民将接受培训，以协助收集数据和使用手机报告系统监测疾病爆发。将嵌入畜牧系统的地方监测系统与能够分析流行病学趋势的区域监测系统相结合，可以改善疾病干预措施。

This project will provide understanding of the epidemiology of infectious diseases in the ecological context of networks of host movements. Specifically, the goal is to understand transmission and maintenance of Foot and Mouth Disease Viruses (FMDV) in networks of livestock movements in the Far North Region of Cameroon. Because FMD is endemic and vaccinations are not used, the region provides an unprecedented opportunity to examine how different networks of livestock movements affect disease epidemiology. Data on disease incidence and prevalence will be collected for four years in overlapping networks of livestock movement including daily foraging, annual transhumance, regional markets, and transboundary trade. The data will be used to develop coupled models of infections within herds and models of movement and connectivity between herds within and across networks. Beyond the development of modeling approaches that will be useful in the study of other infectious diseases with networks of host movements, these models will be used by veterinary and human health services in Cameroon and other nations in the Chad Basin to monitor disease and explore possible interventions for many diseases. The project will also include training Cameroonian veterinary students and researchers in the use of the model and in epidemiology and modeling in general. In addition, local herders will be trained to assist in data collection and surveillance of disease outbreaks using a cell-phone reporting system. The combination of local surveillance system that is embedded in the pastoral system and a regional monitoring system that can analyze epidemiological trends, can improve disease interventions.