Doctoral Dissertation Research: An Artefactual Field Experiment on Information from the Social Network: Implications for Immigration

该奖项资助博士论文研究，使用一系列实地实验来调查信息和社会网络对移民决定的影响。coPI将移民决策建模为模棱两可的决策。一个潜在的移民必须考虑他的决定对他未来经济福利的影响。如果这个人留在自己的祖国，他未来的收入就会面临一些不确定性。然而，虽然他不能确定自己未来的收入，但他对可能性的范围有所了解。如果这个人搬到另一个国家，他面临的不仅是不确定性，还有未来收入的模糊性。不仅他未来的收入不确定，他甚至不知道可能结果的范围或任何特定结果的可能性。这种移民模式预测，选择移民的人比留在本国的人更不喜欢模棱两可。实验设计考察了在模棱两可的情况下的选择，社会网络中关于模棱两可的信息共享，以及对这些信息的反应。实验的参与者包括当前和潜在的未来移民。参与者被允许向（或从）他们的社交网络成员发送（或接收）有关模糊风险的信息。研究设计比较了可以在社交网络上传播的三种不同类型信息的价值：结果信息、描述性信息和建议。该设计允许研究人员分离这些不同类型信息的影响，并测量每种信息的感知价值。研究的第一阶段包括最近移民到美国的人。这些参与者将在模棱两可的赌博中做出选择，并提供有关其社交网络的信息。他们被允许（付费）向他们家乡的潜在移民发送有关实验任务的信息。然后研究者将前往墨西哥与移民中的人联系？社交网络。这些人也将被邀请参加实验，并将在一组类似的赌博中做出选择。研究设计将允许测量第二组参与者从第一组收到的信息的美元价值。这个项目对社会网络如何作为信息渠道，在模棱两可的情况下影响决策产生了新的见解。该项目还将对影响移民决定的行为因素产生新的见解。更广泛的影响包括本科生广泛参与研究，以及对鼓励或阻碍从墨西哥移民到美国的力量有了新的认识。

This award funds doctoral dissertation research that uses a series of field experiments to investigate the impact of information and social networks on the decision to immigrate. The coPI models the decision to immigrate as a decision under ambiguity. A potential immigrant must consider the effect of his decision on his future economic welfare. If this person stays in his home country, he faces some uncertainty about his future earnings. However, while he cannot be certain about his future income, he has information about the range of possibilities. If this person instead moves to another country, he faces not simple uncertainty but ambiguity about future earnings. Not only is his future income uncertain, he does not even know the range of possible outcomes or the likelihood of any specific outcome. This model of immigration predicts that people who choose to immigrate are less ambiguity averse than people who remain in their home country.The experimental design examines choices in ambiguous situations, information shared in the social network about the ambiguity, and responses to that information. Participants in the experiment include current and potential future immigrants. Participants are allowed to send (and receive) information about an ambiguous risk to (and from) members of their social networks. The research design compares the value for three different kinds of information that can be communicated along a social network: outcome information, descriptive information, and advice. The design allows the researcher to separate the effects of these different types of information and measure the perceived value of each.The first stage of the research includes recent immigrants to the US. These participants will make choices in ambigious gambles and will give information about their social networks. They are allowed (at a cost) to send information to potential immigrants in their home village about the experimental tasks. The researcher will then travel to Mexico to contact the people in the immigrants? social networks. These people will also be invited to participate in the experiment and will make choices over a similar group of gambles. The research design will allow for a measurement of the dollar value of the information this second group of participants received from the first group.This project yields new insights into how social networks serve as conduits for information that affects decisions under ambiguity. The project will also yield new insight into the behavioral factors that affect decisions to immigrate. Broader impacts include extensive involvement of undergraduates in the research and new insight into the forces that encourage or discourage immigration from Mexico to the United States.