Collaborative Research: DYNAmics of the Madden Julian Oscillation/DYNAMO Mooring

目前对麦登-朱利安涛动（MJO）的预测技术有限，特别是对印度洋上空的起始阶段的预测能力较差。最先进的全球模式无法重现MJO，这降低了它们对季节到年际的预测，并降低了它们预测未来气候能力的信心。DYNAMO的总体目标是加快我们对印度洋MJO形成的关键过程的理解，并帮助改进MJO的模拟和预测。DYNAMO野外活动被提议作为CINDY2011（2011年印度洋季节内变化合作实验）的美国组成部分，CINDY2011是一个计划于2011年10月至2012年3月在赤道印度洋中部地区开展的国际野外项目。4个国家（澳大利亚、印度、日本和美国）将参加。本项目旨在观测MJO形成过程中云群的结构和演化、与大尺度环境的相互作用以及海气相互作用过程。将使用三个上层海洋/表面通量系泊（DYNAMO系泊）阵列来研究赤道印度洋表面混合层和分层温跃层中的海洋过程及其对MJO的发生和演变的影响。科学目标是量化和理解与MJO事件相互作用的上层海洋的预处理、演变和恢复的动力学，从而为MJO数值模型的参数化方案提供准确的物理。对与MJO耦合至关重要的上层海洋过程包括：(1)表层混合层底部湍流热通量，(2)障壁层，(3)Wyrtki急流，(4)Seychelles-Chagos浅层温跃层脊；(5)地表强迫、混合层过程和湍流通量的日变化。确定了这些海洋过程影响的可检验假设，并将利用对上层海洋过程和赤道印度洋湍流通量的3.5个月连续观测加以解决。系泊阵列将部署在雷达探测阵列的中心，该阵列由两艘船和两个岛站组成，代表了DYNAMO/CINDY2011计划的核心观测组件。每个系泊将配备气象传感器、CTD传感器阵列、系泊微结构传感器（吊舱）和adcp。额外的吊舱阵列将部署在附近的三个RAMA系泊处。结合DYNAMO其他大气和海洋分量的测量，我们将详细重建地表混合层、障壁层、塞舌尔-查戈斯浅层温跃层脊、Wyrtki急流和赤道湍流通量对MJO的响应（恢复）。知识价值：DYNAMO系泊将提供印度洋海洋屏障层、上层海洋混合和夹带、海气相互作用和整体表面混合层过程的观测，这些是MJO启动的关键。这些观测结果将提供给建模者、理论家和其他观测小组，以更好地了解和预测热带气候系统。观测结果将提供海洋过程与MJO相互作用的物理见解，并导致基于物理的参数化，这将提高MJO的预测技能。更广泛的影响：该项目将向年轻科学家介绍热带气候系统中复杂的多尺度和海气相互作用问题。DYNAMO观测结果将用于校准和验证卫星检索结果，有利于将其应用于比mjo相关问题更广泛的领域。DYNAMO活动所产生的MJO模拟和预测的改进将增强在季节内时间尺度上提供预测和评估产品的能力，用于社会风险管理和决策，并增强对气候模拟和预测的信心。

Current prediction skill for the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is limited, and particularly poor for the initiation phase over the Indian Ocean. The inability of state-of-the-art global models to reproduce the MJO degrades their seasonal to inter-annual prediction and lessens confidence in their ability to project future climate. The overarching goal of DYNAMO is to expedite our understanding of processes key to MJO initiation over the Indian Ocean and to help improve simulation and prediction of the MJO.The DYNAMO field campaign is proposed as the US component of CINDY2011 (Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on Intraseasonal Variability in 2011), an international field program planned for October 2011 - March 2012 in the equatorial central Indian Ocean region. Four countries (Australia, India, Japan, and the US) will participate. This field program is designed to observe the structure and evolution of cloud populations, their interaction with the large-scale environment, and air-sea interaction processes during MJO initiation. An array of three upper-ocean / surface-flux moorings (DYNAMO moorings) will be used to study oceanic processes in the surface mixed layer and the stratified thermocline in the equatorial Indian Ocean and their effects on the initiation and evolution of MJO. The scientific goals are to quantify and understand the dynamics of the preconditioning, evolution, and recovery of the upper ocean as it interacts with MJO events and, thereby, to provide accurate physics to parameterization schemes in numerical models of the MJO. Key upper oceanic processes crucial to the coupling with the MJO include: (1) turbulence heat flux at the base of the surface mixed layer, (2) barrier layer, (3) Wyrtki jet, (4) shallow Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge, and (5) diurnal variation of surface forcing, mixed layer processes, and turbulence flux. Testable hypotheses for effects of these oceanic processes are identified and will be tackled using 3.5-month continuous observations of the upper ocean processes and turbulence flux across the equatorial Indian Ocean. The mooring array will be deployed in the center of a radar sounding array consisting of two ships and two island stations, representing the core observational components of the DYNAMO/CINDY2011 program. Each mooring will be equipped with meteorological sensors, arrays of CTD sensors, moored microstructure sensors (pods), and ADCPs. Additional arrays of pods will be deployed on three nearby RAMA moorings. Combined with measurements from other atmospheric and oceanic components of DYNAMO, we will develop a detailed reconstruction of the response (recovery) of the surface mixed layer, barrier layer, shallow Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge, Wyrtki jet, and equatorial turbulent flux to (from) the MJO. Intellectual Merit: DYNAMO moorings will provide observations of the ocean barrier layer, upper-ocean mixing and entrainment, air-sea interaction, and overall surface mixed layer processes in the Indian Ocean which are key to the MJO initiation. These observations will be available to modelers, theoreticians, and other observational groups to better understand and predict the tropical climate system. The observations will provide physical insight into the interaction of oceanic processes with the MJO and lead to physics-based parameterizations that will improve MJO prediction skill.Broader impact: The project will introduce young scientists to complex multi-scale and air-sea interaction problems in the tropical climate system. DYNAMO observations will be used to calibrate and validate satellite retrievals, benefiting their application to much broader areas beyond MJO-related problems. Improved MJO simulation and prediction born from DYNAMO activities will enhance the capacity to deliver prediction and assessment products on intra-seasonal timescales for societal risk management and decision making, and to strengthen confidence in climate simulation and projection.