Collaborative Research: Contingent Reasoning and Bayesian Updating in Games of Incomplete Information: An Experimental Analysis

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This project focuses on two cognitive abilities that are likely to play a key role for departures from rationality when people make strategic decisions under situations of incomplete information. The first is the decision maker's ability to adjust his or her beliefs as he gets new information in a way that is statistically correct -- in other words, the ability to perform Bayesian updating. The second is the ability to carefully think through possible relevant scenarios before making a decision, an ability that the researchers term 'contingent reasoning'. The study uses decision making experiments to study the role of Bayesian updating and contingent reasoning in a series of environments; second price private value auctions, an array of common value auctions, versions of the 'Acquiring a Company' game that have studied by other research teams, and endogenous timing investment games. The researchers use a specially designed individual choice task to classify participants based on their use of Bayesian updating and contingent reasoning. These research subjects then participate in a series of strategically equivalent games to see how behavior in market environments depends on cognitive characteristics. The results apply to a wide range of environments. The requirements for contingent reasoning in any real-world situation depend on a wide variety of factors. Understanding how contingent reasoning affects decisions will allow us to choose those factors in order to encourage people to make the best possible decisions for reaching their chosen goals.