Posted-Offer Markets and Oligopoly Games in Near-Continuous Time: An Experimental Investigation

近连续时间内的报价市场和寡头垄断博弈：实验研究

• 批准号: 0518829
• 负责人: Douglas Davis
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Virginia Commonwealth University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-08-01 至 2009-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0518829&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Posted; Offer; Markets; Oligopoly; Games

This award will fund research using a "near continuous time" variant of the standard laboratory implementations of posted-offer markets and repeated oligopoly games. By truncating sharply the duration of decision periods, this near-continuous framework allows for a very considerable expansion of participant decision-profiles. Increasing decision-profiles in this way is not without some parallels to natural posted-offer markets, particularly when making comparisons across trading institutions. Many economists, forexample, evaluate posted-offer market performance in light of markets organized under double auction trading rules. But high value items, such as stocks and other financial instruments typically trade in double auction markets, while relatively low value consumer goods more frequently trade in posted-offer markets. In order to match the dollar volume associated with a single representative double auction transaction, manyconsumer goods sellers may have multiple opportunities to revisit their pricing decisions. More importantly, the expansion of participant decision profiles allowed by this near-continuous framework addresses the common criticism of posted-offer market and oligopoly laboratory results, that insufficient experience with the market or game drives observed disequilibrium behavior. The PI will conduct a series of four experiments that exploit the longer decision profiles allowed by extensive repetition. They include (a) an examination of a pair of "stylized facts" regarding the response of posted-offer markets to changes in underlying supply and/or demand conditions; (b) an experiment designed to examine interactions between "pure numbers" and "market power" effects in a Bertrand-Edgeworth pricing game; (c) a further examination of the drawing power of Antitrust Logit Model; and (d) an experiment designed to evaluate the long run stability of outcomes in Cournot games.Vernon Smith argues that developing new tools that allow for the better empirical examination of theories represents perhaps the most important task in science. This award will fund one such tool. Results of the four investigations described in the proposal will be interesting, regardless of the outcomes. Broadly speaking, if the near-continuous framework eliminates the "stylized facts" that have come to characterize some frequently observed laboratory deviations from competitive and game-theoretic equilibrium predictions, then I will have developed a new platform for evaluating repeated oligopoly games. On the other hand, the persistence of these "stylized facts" in a near-continuous framework would suggest that at least one idiosyncrasy of standard laboratory methods does not drive these "facts", and would thus provide yet further support for the argument that the pertinent theories fail to explain important aspects of behavior.Experimental research is an ideal way to expose and involve interested undergraduates in the research enterprise. Undergraduate students will participate in this research project as assistants. Exposure of talented undergraduates to the research enterprise in economics is particularly scarce in universities like Virginia Commonwealth University, a racially and ethnically diverse, open access public university without a Ph.D. program in economics.

该奖项将资助使用标准实验室实施的张贴报价市场和重复寡头垄断游戏的“近连续时间”变体的研究。通过大幅缩短决策期的持续时间，这一近乎连续的框架允许参与者决策概况的极大扩展。以这种方式增加决策配置文件，并不是没有与自然发布要约市场的一些相似之处，特别是在进行跨交易机构的比较时。例如，许多经济学家根据双向拍卖交易规则组织的市场来评估发布后的市场表现。但股票和其他金融工具等高价值商品通常在双向拍卖市场交易，而相对低价值的消费品更频繁地在公开发售市场交易。为了与单一代表性的双向拍卖交易相匹配，许多消费品卖家可能有多个机会重新审视他们的定价决定。更重要的是，这一近乎连续的框架所允许的参与者决策档案的扩展，解决了对后报价市场和寡头垄断实验室结果的常见批评，即对市场或博弈的经验不足推动了观察到的不平衡行为。PI将进行一系列四个实验，利用广泛重复所允许的更长的决策配置文件。这些研究包括：(A)研究两个关于公开发售市场对潜在供求状况变化的反应的“程式化事实”；(B)一个实验，旨在考察Bertrand-Edgeworth定价博弈中“纯数字”和“市场力量”效应之间的相互作用；(C)进一步研究反垄断Logit模型的吸引力；以及(D)一个旨在评估古诺博弈结果的长期稳定性的实验。弗农·史密斯认为，开发新的工具，以便更好地对理论进行实证检验，可能是科学中最重要的任务。这个奖项将为一个这样的工具提供资金。无论结果如何，提案中描述的四项调查的结果都将是有趣的。从广义上讲，如果这个近乎连续的框架消除了实验室经常观察到的一些与竞争性和博弈论均衡预测的偏差的“程式化事实”，那么我将开发出一个评估重复寡头垄断游戏的新平台。另一方面，这些“程式化的事实”在一个近乎连续的框架中的持续存在表明，至少有一种标准实验室方法的特质不会驱动这些“事实”，因此将进一步支持相关理论未能解释行为的重要方面的论点。实验研究是揭露和让感兴趣的本科生参与研究事业的理想方式。本科生将作为助教参与这项研究项目。在弗吉尼亚联邦大学这样的大学里，有才华的本科生接触经济学研究企业的机会尤其稀少。弗吉尼亚联邦大学是一所种族和民族多元化的开放式公立大学，没有经济学博士课程。