Collaborative Research: Informal Online Communication in Extreme Events: Content, Dynamics, and Structure

本研究的目的是采用纵向、多危害、多事件的在线交流研究来模拟紧急情况下及其之后的非正式信息交换动态。几乎不间断的非正式信息交换是人类行为的一种特征，最近由于移动设备（如“智能手机”）和社交媒体技术（如Twitter等微博客服务）的广泛采用而发生了变化，这些技术使个人能够在很远的地方与大量联系人取得联系。应急管理从业人员认识到利用这种能力进行灾害警报和预警的潜力，但承认对紧急情况下非正式在线交流的动态知之甚少，特别是对引入官方和非官方来源的应急信息对现有信息流的改变方式知之甚少。使用自动数据收集方法，将在持续的基础上（在事件发生之前、期间和之后）收集关于传播内容动态和传播者在线网络属性的定量信息，以及关于警告和警报以及媒体对危险事件报道的定性信息。该项目将研究官方信息来源在非正式交流中的作用，以及个人在快速变化的环境中确定信息准确性和建立信任的机制的出现，从而获得对极端事件的在线反应的预测模型。通过本研究，将拓展现有的网络/灾害背景下的谣言与非正式传播理论，开发针对危险事件的传播内容与网络结构共同演化的正式模型，并评估社会、经济、地理和灾害背景对非正式网络传播的影响。本研究的更广泛影响包括开发了测量官方插入对在线传播（内生因素和其他因素的网络）影响的方法，以及创建了第一个关于紧急情况下非正式在线传播的交叉危害基线控制纵向数据集。这项研究不仅有可能从根本上改变跨灾害社会动态比较研究的方法，而且有可能从根本上改变对灾害背景下沟通如何展开的理解，以及社会和经济不平等（“数字鸿沟”）对非正式社会互动的一个特别关键维度的影响。

The objective of this research is to employ a longitudinal, multi-hazard, multi-event study of online communication to model the dynamics of informal information exchange in and immediately following emergency situations. The nearly continuous, informal exchange of information is a characteristic human behavior that has been recently transformed by the widespread adoption of mobile devices (such as "smart-phones") and social media technologies (e.g., micro-blogging services such as Twitter), which allow individuals to reach large numbers of contacts over great distances. Emergency management practitioners recognize the potential to exploit this capacity for disaster alerts and warnings, but acknowledge that relatively little is known about the dynamics of informal online communication in emergencies -- and, in particular, about the ways in which existing streams of information are modified by the introduction of emergency information from both official and unofficial sources. Using automated data collection methods, quantitative information will be collected on both the dynamics of communication content and on the properties of communicants' online networks on an ongoing basis (before, during, and after events), and qualitative information on warnings and alerts, as well as media coverage of hazard events. This project will examine the role of official sources in informal communication, and the emergence of mechanisms by which individuals determine information accuracy and establish trust in a rapidly changing environment, and thereby obtain a predictive model of the online response to extreme events. Through this research, existing theories of rumor and informal communication within an online/hazards context will be extended, formal models for the joint evolution of communication content and network structure in response to hazardous events will be developed, and the impact of social, economic, geographical, and hazard context on informal online communication will be evaluated.The broader impacts of this research include the development of methods for measuring the impact of official inserts on online communication (net of endogenous and other factors), and the creation of the first cross-hazard, baseline controlled longitudinal data set on informal online communication during emergencies. This research has the potential to fundamentally transform not only the methodology for the comparative study of social dynamics across hazards, but also the understanding of how communication unfolds within the hazards context and the impact of social and economic inequalities (the "digital divide") on a particularly critical dimension of informal social interaction.