Collaborative Research: Informal Online Communication in Extreme Events: Content, Dynamics, and Structure

本研究的目的是采用一个纵向的，多灾害，多事件的在线通信的动态模型的非正式信息交流和紧接着紧急情况下的研究。 几乎连续的、非正式的信息交换是一种典型的人类行为，其最近已经被移动的设备（诸如“智能电话”）和社交媒体技术（例如，微博服务，如Twitter），使个人能够达到大量的联系人在很远的距离。 应急管理从业人员认识到利用这一能力发出灾害警报和警告的潜力，但承认对紧急情况下非正式在线通信的动态，特别是对如何通过引入来自官方和非官方来源的紧急情况信息来修改现有信息流，了解相对较少。 将使用自动数据收集方法，不断（在事件发生之前、期间和之后）收集关于传播内容动态和传播者在线网络特性的定量信息，以及关于警告和警报以及媒体对灾害事件报道的定性信息。该项目将研究官方来源在非正式通信中的作用，以及个人在迅速变化的环境中确定信息准确性和建立信任的机制的出现，从而获得对极端事件的在线反应的预测模型。 通过这项研究，现有的谣言和非正式沟通的理论在一个在线/危险的背景下将得到扩展，正式模型的联合演变的通信内容和网络结构，以应对危险事件将被开发，社会，经济，地理，这项研究的更广泛的影响包括发展的方法来衡量官方插页对在线通信的影响（内部因素和其他因素的净额），以及创建第一个关于紧急情况期间非正式在线通信的跨灾害、基线控制纵向数据集。 这项研究不仅有可能从根本上改变对各种灾害的社会动态进行比较研究的方法，而且有可能从根本上改变对灾害背景下通信如何展开以及社会和经济不平等（“数字鸿沟”）对非正式社会互动的一个特别重要方面的影响的理解。

The objective of this research is to employ a longitudinal, multi-hazard, multi-event study of online communication to model the dynamics of informal information exchange in and immediately following emergency situations. The nearly continuous, informal exchange of information is a characteristic human behavior that has been recently transformed by the widespread adoption of mobile devices (such as "smart-phones") and social media technologies (e.g., micro-blogging services such as Twitter), which allow individuals to reach large numbers of contacts over great distances. Emergency management practitioners recognize the potential to exploit this capacity for disaster alerts and warnings, but acknowledge that relatively little is known about the dynamics of informal online communication in emergencies -- and, in particular, about the ways in which existing streams of information are modified by the introduction of emergency information from both official and unofficial sources. Using automated data collection methods, quantitative information will be collected on both the dynamics of communication content and on the properties of communicants' online networks on an ongoing basis (before, during, and after events), and qualitative information on warnings and alerts, as well as media coverage of hazard events. This project will examine the role of official sources in informal communication, and the emergence of mechanisms by which individuals determine information accuracy and establish trust in a rapidly changing environment, and thereby obtain a predictive model of the online response to extreme events. Through this research, existing theories of rumor and informal communication within an online/hazards context will be extended, formal models for the joint evolution of communication content and network structure in response to hazardous events will be developed, and the impact of social, economic, geographical, and hazard context on informal online communication will be evaluated.The broader impacts of this research include the development of methods for measuring the impact of official inserts on online communication (net of endogenous and other factors), and the creation of the first cross-hazard, baseline controlled longitudinal data set on informal online communication during emergencies. This research has the potential to fundamentally transform not only the methodology for the comparative study of social dynamics across hazards, but also the understanding of how communication unfolds within the hazards context and the impact of social and economic inequalities (the "digital divide") on a particularly critical dimension of informal social interaction.