A Workshop to Develop a Science and Implementation Plan For Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise from Land-Ice Loss

该奖项为将于2010年7月举办的“为预测未来海平面因陆冰流失而上升而制定科学和实施计划的讲习班”提供支持。研讨会将汇集多达46名美国科学家(其中6个名额留给研究生和博士后研究人员)，他们来自许多不同的领域，包括建模、冰川学、海洋学、地质学和大气科学。讲习班的三个主要目标是：1)概述目前对冰盖动力学的科学认识；2)讨论如何改进我们对冰盖对气候变化的动态反应的理解和建模，特别是通过查明海平面预测中不确定性的主要来源；3)确定减少不确定性所需的重要观测和建模战略。智力优势：我们从卫星图像中有充分的证据表明，陆地冰正在以比预期更快的速度消失，美国国家科学基金会有几个资助的项目正在开始解决陆地冰消失加速的原因，但还没有协调一致的努力，将一个广泛的跨学科团队聚集在一起，解决我们应该在未来五年将研究资金集中在什么(以及哪里)上，以最好地理解为什么(过程)的问题。拟议的研讨会将向陆地冰消失界、国家科学基金会和其他感兴趣的机构提交一份文件，总结需要处理的研究主题并确定优先次序，以了解推动陆地冰加速消融的过程。更广泛的影响：陆地冰的减少现在被认为贡献了当前海平面上升的一半以上，而且预测显示陆地冰的减少的贡献只会增加。由于1.45亿人生活在海拔仅一米的陆地上，我们必须改进对海平面上升的预测。这将需要机构间的协调努力，而研讨会是朝着确定我们需要采取的道路迈出的一步。研讨会报告草稿将在会议后两个月内完成，然后将分发给社会各界征求意见，并在几次科学会议上进行讨论，然后作为最终文件提交，旨在广泛提供。大约一半的参与者将被邀请，一半的参与者将通过竞争过程选出。美国国家科学基金会提供的资金将仅用于支持美国科学家。让早期职业科学家和学生参与介绍和讨论必然是跨学科的、综合的和真正前沿的南极科学领域，对于培养下一代南极研究人员将是极其宝贵的。

This award provides support for "A Workshop to Develop a Science and Implementation Plan For Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise from Land-Ice Loss" to be held in July 2010. The workshop will bring together up to 46 U.S. scientists (with six of the slots reserved for graduate students and post-doctoral researchers) from many different fields including modeling, glaciology, oceanography, geology, and atmospheric science. The three overarching goals of the workshop are to 1) provide an overview of the current scientific understanding of ice-sheet dynamics; 2) to discuss ways to improve our understanding and modeling of the dynamic response of ice sheets to climate change, specifically by identifying the major sources of the uncertainties in developing sea level predictions; and 3) to identify the critical observational and modeling strategies need to reduce the uncertainties. Intellectual Merit: We have ample evidence from satellite imagery that land ice is being lost at a faster than expected rate, and the NSF has several funded projects that are beginning to address the reasons why land ice losses are accelerating, but there has not been a concerted effort to bring together a broad interdisciplinary team to address what (and where) we should be focusing our research dollars on in the next five years to best understand the why (process) question. The proposed workshop will deliver to the land ice loss community, the NSF, and other interested agencies a document summarizing and prioritizing the research topics that need to be addressed to understand the processes driving accelerated land ice loss. Broader Impact: Land ice loss is now thought to contribute more than half of the current sea level rise, and projections show the contribution of land ice loss is only going to increase. With 145 million people living on land only one meter above sea level, we must improve our predictions of sea level rise. This is going to take a concerted interagency effort, and the workshop is one step towards defining the path we need to take.A draft workshop report will be completed within two months of the meeting, and the report will then be circulated to the community for comment, and discussed at several scientific meetings before being submitted as a final document intended to be broadly available. Approximately half of the participants will be invited, and half of the participants will be selected via a competitive process. Funds provided by the NSF will only be used to support US scientists. Inclusion of early career scientists and students in the presentation and discussion of a necessarily interdisciplinary, integrated, and truly cutting edge area of Antarctic science will be extremely valuable in training the next generation of Antarctic researchers.