EFRI-SEED: Risk Conscious Design and Retrofit of Buildings for Low Energy

这项EFRI-SEED研究的目标是识别和量化在不同系统尺度和不同模型类型下影响建筑性能的参数的不确定性分布。研究将分析和概括参数分布，并将其与建筑类型、年龄、系统设计、建筑设计特征、形态参数、技术实验性质、城市背景和居住者组织类型相关联。将仔细描述建筑性能中不同的不确定性来源，并进行统计验证。使用来自240个被监测建筑的数据，不确定性的建模和校准将在五个不同的系统尺度上进行：Meteorological-Urban-Building-System-Occupant.它们对结果的影响将与城市和建筑设计参数相关，例如空间和围护结构的复杂性。这项工作将提供支持这一方法的理论和模型，并将在两个受到公众强烈关注的应用中展示这一点：(1)大规模的能源改造，(2)净零能耗建筑的设计(NZEB)。此外，它还将建立一种环境，在这种环境中，拟议的能源系统可以在不确定的情况下在整个建筑规模内进行基准测试。这种环境将提供给其他获奖的EFRI-SEED项目，在真实的、不确定的系统特性和条件下测试它们的系统。为低能耗建筑的设计和能源改造提供了一种新的方法。这将消除目前通常基于单一最佳估计预测的决策不足的有害障碍。业主会要求更好的保证，一定会实现预期的节能效果。拟议的方法将具体展示不确定性如何影响决策，以及如何以有风险意识的方式判断额外投资和节能之间的权衡。这项研究需要建筑建模和模拟专家、系统设计理论家、统计学家、建筑和城市设计师、能源技术专家和审计专家之间的高度跨学科方法。研究团队将所有这些学科结合在一起。来自GT园区三个不同研究实验室(建筑、机械工程和工业与系统工程)的学生将在他们的研究生和研究生教育中受益于这一跨学科部分。拟议中的教育计划将导致对具有计算能源建模、建筑设计理论和实践、统计学方法、系统工程和数值分析等坚实背景的不同学生进行严格的培训。2010财年EFRI-SEED主题支持该项目，由美国国家科学基金会(NSF)工程(ENG)、数学和物理科学(MPS)和社会、行为和经济科学(SBE)、计算机与信息科学与工程(Computer&Amp；Information Science and Engineering)与美国能源部(DOE)和美国环境保护局(EPA)合作发起。

The objective of this EFRI-SEED research is to identify and quantify uncertainty distributions of parameters affecting building performance at different system scales and in different model types. The research will analyze and generalize the parameter distributions and correlate them with building type, age, system design, architectural design characteristics, morphological parameters, experimental nature of technologies, urban context, and type of occupant organization. The different sources of uncertainty in building performance will be carefully characterized and statistically validated. Using data from 240 monitored buildings, the modeling and calibration of uncertainties will be conducted at five distinct system scales: Meteorological-Urban-Building-System-Occupant. Their effect on outcomes will be correlated to urban and architectural design parameters, such as spatial and envelope complexity. This work will provide the theory and models to support this approach and will demonstrate this in two applications which are receiving strong public interest: (1) a large scale energy retrofit, and (2) design of a net-zero energy building (NZEB). In addition, it will develop an environment in which proposed energy systems can be benchmarked at whole building scale under uncertainty. This environment will be offered to other awarded EFRI-SEED projects to test their systems under real-life, uncertain system properties and conditions.A new approach to the design of low-energy buildings and energy retrofits is offered. This will remove a detrimental barrier from current deficient decision making typically based on single best estimate predictions. Owners will ask for better guarantees that a certain predicted energy saving will be accomplished. The proposed approach will specifically show how uncertainty influences decisions and how tradeoffs between extra investments and energy saving can be judged in a risk-conscious way. This research requires a highly interdisciplinary approach between building modeling and simulation experts, systems design theorists, statisticians, architectural and urban designers, energy technologists, and auditing experts. The research team combines all of these disciplines. Students from three different research labs on the GT campus (in Architecture, Mechanical Engineering, and Industrial and Systems Engineering) will profit from this cross-disciplinary component in their graduate and postgraduate education. The education plan in the proposed effort will result in rigorous training of a diverse group of students with solid backgrounds in computational energy modeling, architectural design theory and practice, statistical methods, systems engineering, and numerical analysis.The FY 2010 EFRI-SEED Topic that supports this project was sponsored by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) Directorates for Engineering (ENG), Mathematical and Physical Sciences (MPS) and Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences (SBE), and Computer & Information Science and Engineering in collaboration with the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).