WSC Category-2: Climate Change, Shifting Land Use, and Urbanization in a Midwestern Agricultural Landscape: Challenges for Water Quality and Quantity

在气候变化、人类需求、农业实践、土地利用和其他政策相互作用的农业流域城市化过程中，水在大气、生态系统和人类之间的循环日益受到关注。在这项研究中，研究人员将探讨如何随着气候、土地利用、城市和人类需求的变化而保持人类从不同景观中获得的好处。研究人员将使用综合情景、模型实验来评估变化的驱动因素对生态系统带来的人类利益的影响，评估治理、公众参与和信息管理。焦点是威斯康星州的叶哈拉分水岭，调查人员将在那里解决三个具体问题。(1)土地覆盖、土地管理和水资源工程实践的不同模式如何影响淡水生态系统在气候变化下的复原力？(2)如何使水和土地利用的治理系统更好地响应变化驱动因素，以满足多样化的人类需求？(3)人类-环境系统以哪些方式能够应对变化，以及它们以哪些方式易受气候和淡水潜在变化的影响？这项工作将综合决策者的观点、资源治理的替代方法、人口和经济驱动因素的看似合理的趋势，以及替代气候制度下的模型预测，以评估分水岭的未来条件。一套创新的外展和教育活动将惠及利益相关者，包括雅哈拉分水岭及其他地区的居民；威斯康星大学麦迪逊分水岭和埃奇伍德学院的本科生和研究生；博士后学员；商界领袖；以及地方、州、国家和国际各级的政策制定者。综合方案进程不仅将研究的各个组成部分联系起来，而且还为外联、教育和探讨气候变化背景下未来发展的不同观点的讨论提供了重点。该项目将通过研讨会、环境论坛、门多塔湖滨水上漫步、威斯康星州公共电视台的专题节目和动态网站进一步吸引市民。该专门网站将提供(1)情景演变的描述，以及成果的总结和可视化，(2)可视化和获取在分水岭收集的观测数据，(3)水上行走的虚拟在线版本和播客，以及(4)通过博客和围绕项目参与者的公开会议、论坛和年度会议的讨论来组织反馈。

The cycling of water between the atmosphere, ecosystems, and humans is a growing concern in urbanizing agricultural watersheds where changing climate, human demands, agricultural practices, land use and other policies interact. In this study, the investigators will address how the benefits humans receive from diverse landscapes can be sustained as climate, land use, cities, and human demands change. The researchers will employ integrated scenarios, model experiments to assess effects of changing drivers on human benefits derived from ecosystems, evaluations of governance, public engagement, and information management. The focus is the Yahara Watershed of Wisconsin, where the investigators will address three specific questions. (1) How do different patterns of land cover, land management, and water resource engineering practices affect the resilience of freshwater ecosystems under a changing climate? (2) How can governance systems for water and land use be made more responsive to drivers of change to meet diverse human needs? (3) In what ways are human-environment systems able to cope with change and in what ways are they vulnerable to potential changes in climate and freshwaters? This work will synthesize decision-maker perspectives, alternative approaches to resource governance, plausible trends in demographic and economic drivers, and model projections under alternate climate regimes to assess future conditions of the watershed. An innovative set of outreach and education activities will reach stakeholders, including residents of the Yahara Watershed and beyond; undergraduate and graduate students at UW-Madison and Edgewood College; postdoctoral trainees; business leaders; and policy makers at local, state, national and international levels. The integrated scenario process not only links the components of the research, but also provides a focus for outreach, education and discussions that explore diverse viewpoints about future development in the context of climate change. The project will further engage citizens through workshops, environmental forums, an informative Water Walk along the Lake Mendota lakeshore, a feature show on Wisconsin Public Television, and a dynamic website. The dedicated website will offer (1) descriptions of the scenarios as they evolve, and summary and visualization of the outcomes, (2) visualization and access to observational data collected in the watershed, (3) a virtual online version and podcasts of the Water Walk, and (4) organization of feedback through blogs and discussions surrounding public meetings, forums, and annual meetings of project participants.