WSC Category-2: Climate Change, Shifting Land Use, and Urbanization in a Midwestern Agricultural Landscape: Challenges for Water Quality and Quantity

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The cycling of water between the atmosphere, ecosystems, and humans is a growing concern in urbanizing agricultural watersheds where changing climate, human demands, agricultural practices, land use and other policies interact. In this study, the investigators will address how the benefits humans receive from diverse landscapes can be sustained as climate, land use, cities, and human demands change. The researchers will employ integrated scenarios, model experiments to assess effects of changing drivers on human benefits derived from ecosystems, evaluations of governance, public engagement, and information management. The focus is the Yahara Watershed of Wisconsin, where the investigators will address three specific questions. (1) How do different patterns of land cover, land management, and water resource engineering practices affect the resilience of freshwater ecosystems under a changing climate? (2) How can governance systems for water and land use be made more responsive to drivers of change to meet diverse human needs? (3) In what ways are human-environment systems able to cope with change and in what ways are they vulnerable to potential changes in climate and freshwaters? This work will synthesize decision-maker perspectives, alternative approaches to resource governance, plausible trends in demographic and economic drivers, and model projections under alternate climate regimes to assess future conditions of the watershed. An innovative set of outreach and education activities will reach stakeholders, including residents of the Yahara Watershed and beyond; undergraduate and graduate students at UW-Madison and Edgewood College; postdoctoral trainees; business leaders; and policy makers at local, state, national and international levels. The integrated scenario process not only links the components of the research, but also provides a focus for outreach, education and discussions that explore diverse viewpoints about future development in the context of climate change. The project will further engage citizens through workshops, environmental forums, an informative Water Walk along the Lake Mendota lakeshore, a feature show on Wisconsin Public Television, and a dynamic website. The dedicated website will offer (1) descriptions of the scenarios as they evolve, and summary and visualization of the outcomes, (2) visualization and access to observational data collected in the watershed, (3) a virtual online version and podcasts of the Water Walk, and (4) organization of feedback through blogs and discussions surrounding public meetings, forums, and annual meetings of project participants.