WSC-Category 1: Humans, Hydrology, Climate Change, and Ecosystems- An Integrated Analysis of Water Resources and Ecosystem Services in the Great Lakes Basin

[1039062]在缺水地区，气候变化可能会加剧水资源短缺，但水资源丰富的地区可能会变得更湿润。无可否认，北美五大湖地区水资源丰富，但人们担心水资源可能被过度利用。管制取水和出口的政策正在通过最近通过的两国《大湖区水资源契约》逐步形成，其中包括保护水资源的规定。该地区的经济前景不确定，可能与生物燃料原料增长和加工等潜在的水密集型部门的扩张有关。水资源利用的变化可能给生态系统带来相应的压力。气候变化将带来水文循环的变化，这也将对水生生态系统产生压力。如果五大湖的水资源压力加剧，这个水资源丰富地区的个人和组织会改变他们的行为来节约用水吗？他们建议通过以下方式解决这个问题：(a)开发综合生物物理模型，用于预测未来土地和气候变化情景对生态系统的影响；(b)了解该地区的群体和个人如何看待该地区的水生资源，以及他们认为影响人类对这些水资源行为的适当规范，特别是与生态系统服务相关的规范。并将这些评估与旨在改变他们在区域水资源方面的计划行为的干预措施联系起来。这项工作的长期目标是：(1)预测未来土地开发和气候变化引起的水量和水质变化所造成的环境影响和生态系统价值和服务的相关损失；(2)制定数据收集方案，以评估社区对气候引起的生物物理影响的社会影响的看法（参与式自我评估）；(3)研究对预测的生物物理影响可能产生的社会反应，并评估改变这些反应的机制；(4)制定减轻负面影响的政策方案，这些方案可以通过一系列不同的标准进行评估。这项为期一年的计划资助的近期目标是：(1)完善研究目标并制定关键假设，利用现有的数据库和文献，为来自经济、社会和生物物理科学的研究人员团队进行深入分析和对话提供信息；(2)评估模型输入的现有数据集以及校准和验证工作；(3)在几个关键流域测试现有的和混合的生物物理和生态系统影响建模策略；(4)开发定量和定性的社会数据收集工具，供区域使用；(5)为一个完整的项目提出建议。相应的规划资助活动将包括(1)与受邀的科学专家和非政府组织成员以及州、联邦和双边机构召开研讨会；(2)聘请博士后，整合现有模型和数据库，建立预测水文生态系统模型；(3)开发和测试社交数据收集工具。数据收集和建模活动将利用共同项目正在进行的关于五大湖生物地球化学过程和人类-生态相互作用的工作。智力价值：该项目建立在他们理解和预测单个生态系统行为的能力之上，并开发出预测区域景观对未来气候和社会经济条件变化的反应所需的工具。他们开发的模型需要创新，将气候变化和人类活动驱动因素整合到耦合的水文-生态系统服务模型中。他们对人类对五大湖水资源看法的态度和信念的分析，将对影响人类对这些资源活动的规范以及如何塑造这些规范以解决与水有关的问题产生重要见解。更广泛的影响：该项目将开始培训一名硕士学生，指导一名博士后，并开发一个供公众和学校使用的教育网络模块。该模块将通过合作项目正在进行的广泛的地方、区域和国际K-12水资源活动进行传播。通过MTU的毕业生水资源管理证书，他们将在研究生研讨会上就气候变化对五大湖管理、政策和人类价值观的影响进行一系列的团队演讲。该项目将在MTU部门之间和多个机构之间建立新的跨学科联系。它将汇集学术研究人员和政策制定者来构建研究，以产生对资源管理者和公共政策决策者有用的结果。

1039062MayerWater shortages will likely be exacerbated by climate change in water-scarce regions, but water-rich regions may get wetter. The Great Lakes region of North America is undeniably water-rich, but apprehension exists that water resources may be over-used. Policies for regulating water withdrawals and exports are evolving through the recently-passed binational Great Lakes Water Compact, including prescriptions for water conservation. The economic future of the region is uncertain and may be linked to expansion of potentially water-intensive sectors such as biofuel feedstock growth and processing. Shifts in water usage may bring about corresponding stresses on ecosystems. Climate change will bring about shifts in the hydrologic cycle that will also produce stress on aquatic ecosystems. If pressures on water resources intensify in the Great Lakes, will individuals and organization within this water-rich region modify their behavior to conserve water? They propose to address this question by (a) developing integrated biophysical models for predicting ecosystem impacts due to future scenarios of land and climate change and (b) developing an understanding of how the region's groups and individuals view the regions' aquatic resources and what they believe are appropriate norms shaping human behavior vis-a-vis these water resources, especially as they relate to ecosystem services, and linking these assessments to interventions designed to shift their planned behavior with regard to regional water resources. The long-range objectives of this work are (1) to predict environmental impacts and associated losses of ecosystem values and services resulting from water quantity and quality alterations caused by future land development and climate changes; (2) to develop data collection protocols for evaluating community perceptions of the social impacts of climate induced biophysical impacts (participatory self-assessment); (3) to investigate possible social responses to predicted biophysical impacts and evaluate mechanisms for changing those responses; and (4) to develop policy scenarios for mitigating negative impacts that can in turn be evaluated by a diverse set of criteria. The immediate objectives of the 1-year planning grant are: (1) to refine research objectives and formulate key hypotheses, utilizing available databases and literature to inform in-depth analyses and dialogue by a team of researchers from the economic, social, and biophysical sciences; (2) to assess existing datasets for model inputs and calibration and verification efforts; (3) to test existing and hybrid biophysical and ecosystem impact modeling strategies on a few key watersheds; (4) to develop quantitative and qualitative social data collection tools for region-wide use; and (5) to develop a proposal for a full project. The corresponding planning grant activities will include (1) convening workshops with invited scientific experts and members of NGOs and state, federal and bi-national agencies; (2) hiring a post-doc to pull together existing models and databases to develop a predictive hydrologic-ecosystem model; and (3) developing and testing the social data collection tools. The data collection and modeling activities will be leveraged by ongoing work by the co-PIs on Great Lakes biogeochemical processes and human-ecological interactions. Intellectual merit: This project builds upon their ability to understand and predict behavior of individual ecosystems and develops tools needed to predict responses of the regional landscape to future scenarios of altered climate and socioeconomic conditions. The models they develop will require innovations in integrating climate change and human activity drivers into coupled hydrologic-ecosystem services models. Their analysis of attitudes and beliefs surrounding human perception of the Great Lakes water resources will yield important insights into the norms that shape human activities with regard to these resources and how those norms can be shaped to solve water-related problems. Broader impacts: This project will begin the training of one M.S. student, mentor one post-doctoral fellow, and develop an educational web-based module for use by the public and schools. The module will be disseminated through the co-PIs'ongoing, broad range of local, regional, and international K-12 water resource activities. Through MTU's graduate Water Resources Management Certificate, they will feature a series of team presentations in the graduate symposium on the climate change-related implications for Great Lakes management, policy, and human values. The project will develop new interdisciplinary connections between MTU departments and among multiple institutions. It will bring together academic researchers and policy makers to structure the research to produce outcomes useful for resource managers and public policy decision makers.