IDR: Collaborative Research: Sustainable Water Resources for Communities under Climate Change: Can State-of-the-Art Forecasting Inform Decision-Making in Data Sparse Regions?

IDR：合作研究：气候变化下社区的可持续水资源：最先进的预测能否为数据稀疏地区的决策提供信息？

• 批准号: 1014818
• 负责人: Alex Mayer
• 金额: $ 31.74万
• 依托单位: Michigan Technological University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-09-15 至 2016-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1014818&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: IDR; Collaborative; Research; Sustainable; Water

1014818MayerThis project will study decision-making for water resources management in anticipation of climate change in northern Mexico as a case study for the broader arid and semiarid southwestern North America. The goal of the project is to determine whether water resources systems modeling, developed within a participatory framework, can contribute to the building of management strategies in a context of water scarcity, conflicting water uses and highly variable and changing climate conditions. Local stakeholders will be involved in guiding the design of supply- and demand-side management strategies and selection of climate change scenarios using state-of-the-art engineering tools. These tools include a water resources systems framework, a spatially-explicit hydrologic model, the use of forecasted climate scenarios under 21st century climate change, and observations obtained from field and satellite sensors. The participatory modeling approach will be conducted through a series of interactive workshops, carefully designed to encouragesubstantive participation from a broad range of stakeholders, including representatives from federal and local government agencies, water use sectors, non-governmental organizations, and academics. The work will evaluate the sustainable outcomes emerging from the climate change scenarios and the potential adaptations that can be implemented in the decision-making process.The proposed work combines engineering research with social and behavioral sciences for the purpose of evaluating sustainable water management outcomes in a semiarid region in a developing country. Three doctoral level students will be engaged as well as undergraduate students for short-term research experiences. A focus on recruiting Hispanic students (with language skills) will facilitate interactions with local decision makers, regional stakeholders and the general public. The project team will also work with several local universities in Sonora to develop an effective participatory modeling program. The target is for the results of this project to have an impact on water decision-making under climate change in the study area and to provide a case study for replication in other data-sparse, semiarid regions.

1014818年5月本项目将研究预测墨西哥北方气候变化的水资源管理决策，作为北美西南部更广泛的干旱和半干旱地区的案例研究。该项目的目标是确定在参与性框架内开发的水资源系统建模是否有助于在水资源短缺、用水冲突和气候条件多变和不断变化的情况下制定管理战略。地方利害关系方将参与指导供需方管理战略的设计，并利用最先进的工程工具选择气候变化设想方案。这些工具包括一个水资源系统框架、一个空间上明确的水文模型、在21世纪世纪气候变化下使用预测的气候情景以及从实地和卫星传感器获得的观测结果。参与式建模方法将通过一系列互动式研讨会进行，精心设计，以确保广泛的利益相关者的实质性参与，包括来自联邦和地方政府机构、用水部门、非政府组织和学术界的代表。这项工作将评估气候变化情景所产生的可持续结果以及在决策过程中可能实施的潜在适应措施，拟议的工作将工程研究与社会和行为科学相结合，以评估发展中国家半干旱地区可持续水管理的结果。三名博士水平的学生将参与以及本科生的短期研究经验。重点招聘西班牙裔学生（具有语言技能）将促进与当地决策者，区域利益攸关方和公众的互动。项目团队还将与索诺拉当地的几所大学合作，开发一个有效的参与式建模程序。目标是使该项目的成果对研究地区气候变化下的用水决策产生影响，并为在其他数据稀少的半干旱地区复制提供案例研究。