RAPID RESEARCH: Particle Trajectories in Volcanic Plumes: Tracking the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull Plume

这个RAPID（快速反应）项目是由布法罗大学（UB）、阿拉斯加大学-费尔班克斯地球物理研究所（UAF-GI）和大学的科学家共同努力的，目的是试图模拟冰岛埃亚菲亚德拉火山喷发造成的火山灰扩散，自2010年4月14日火山灰开始排放以来，该火山喷发对欧洲航空业造成了严重破坏。平流的下风羽流被认为对飞机构成严重威胁，可能会损坏喷气发动机并磨损飞机前缘。拟议中的工作可能会对未来几个月的空中交通产生重要影响，因为过去的埃亚菲亚德拉火山喷发持续了一年多。建议采用集合预报的方法编制不同时间的概率灰云图。更具体地说，“泡芙”模拟代码将用于预测从2010年4月14日开始的埃亚菲亚德拉火山火山灰云的运动。喷发柱的高度和载荷的变化将通过柱模型Bent来介绍。将使用来自不同来源和不同分辨率的风场数据。由不确定的输入参数和初始条件以及随机强迫引起的输出变异性将被确定。将通过与卫星数据的比较来验证输出结果。该项目的主要科学目标是：了解不确定的输入变量和随机强迫如何影响帕夫模拟埃亚菲亚德拉火山云的输出，根据卫星数据验证输出，并探索改进灰云危害评估的可能性。预计这项工作将对灰云跟踪以及概率危害评估和集合预测产生影响。

This RAPID (Rapid Response) project is a collaborative effort by scientists from University at Buffalo (UB), the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska - Fairbanks (UAF-GI) and University to make an attempt to model the ash dispersal due to the volcanic eruption at Eyjafjallajokull, Iceland, that has wreaked havoc on European aviation since ash emissions began on 14 April 2010. The advecting downwind plume is thought to be a serious hazard to aircraft, with potential for damage to jet engines and abrasion of airplane leading edges. The proposed work could have important ramifications for air traffic over the next months, as past Eyjafjallajokull eruptions have continued for over one year.It is proposed to use ensemble forecasting to develop probabilistic ash cloud maps at different times. More specifically, the 'Puff' simulation code will be used to hindcast the motion of the Eyjafjallajokull ash cloud through time beginning on 14 April 2010. Variability in the height and loading of the eruption column will be introduced through the column model Bent. Windfield data from several sources and with differing resolutions will be used. Output variability due to uncertain input parameters and initial conditions, and random forcing, will be determined. The output will be validated through comparison with satellite data. The principal scientific goals of this project are: to understand how uncertain input variables and random forcing affect the output of Puff simulations of the Eyjafjallajokull cloud, to validate output against satellite data, and to explore the possibility of producing improved assessments of ash cloud hazards. It is expected that the work will have implications for ash cloud tracking as well as probabilistic hazards assessment and ensemble forecasting.