Auroral Precipitation Modeling Relevant to the Antarctic Upper Atmosphere

该奖项是为了进一步发展能量范围从几十电子伏特（eV）到数百千电子伏特（keV）的先进极光粒子降水模型，该模型将包括明确的季节依赖性，允许对南极和北极电离层的行为进行单独预测。模型的参数化将通过函数拟合来实现，而不是通过一组带有实验数据的离散箱来实现。高能量粒子群与低能量粒子群在不同的时间尺度上变化，它们深入地球上层大气，对大气化学的影响要深刻得多。通过对美国宇航局极地航天器UVI瞬时全球图像的分析，将首次使用临近预报、基于kp指数和太阳风/ imf驱动的方法对降水模式进行定量比较。这项工作将使研究结合太阳风数据和临近预报（或Kp，视情况而定）的多参数模型能够显著提高模型的准确性。其他主要的进步将包括提供详细的粒子谱，而不仅仅是特征能量，以及处理当前降水模型无法处理的高度扰动的地磁条件。通过在NOAA/NGDC网站上实时运行先进降水模式，实现了该建模工作的更广泛影响；该模式目前正在评估中，以取代旧的业务降水模式。这对地球空间科学界和监测空间天气的业务机构都很重要。本科生的参与扩展了项目的教育成分。

This award is for further development of the advanced auroral particle precipitation model for the energy range from a few tens of electronvolts (eV) up to hundreds of kilioelectronvolts (keV) that will include explicit seasonal dependence permitting separate prediction of the behavior of the Southern and Northern polar ionospheres. The model's parameterization will be achieved through the functional fits rather than through a handful set of discrete bins with experimental data. The higher energy particle population, which varies on a different time scale than the lower energy particle population, penetrates deeper into the Earth's upper atmosphere, affecting atmospheric chemistry much more profoundly. For the first time the precipitation models will be quantitatively compared using the nowcast, Kp-index based, and solar wind/IMF-driven approaches through the analysis of the NASA'a Polar spacecraft UVI instantaneous global images. This work will enable investigations of the multi-parameter models that combine the solar wind data and nowcast (or Kp as proves appropriate) to improve significantly the model's accuracy. Other major advances will include providing detailed particle spectra instead of just characteristic energies, and to handle highly disturbed geomagnetic conditions that no current generation precipitation models can treat. The broader impacts of this modeling effort are achieved through the running the advanced precipitation models on the NOAA/NGDC Web site in real-time operation; this model is currently under evaluation to replace their old operational precipitation model. This is important for both the geospace scientific community and operational agencies monitoring space weather. Involvement of the undergraduate students extends the project's educational component.