Oil spill transport modeling in shelf, estuary, and intracoastal regions

本研究的主要目标是进一步开发、应用和分析一种计算工具，该工具可用于检查沿着美国东海岸（包括佛罗里达、格鲁吉亚和两个与深水地平线漏油事件有关的南卡罗来纳州）的运输趋势。这个计算工具的核心部分将是高级循环（ADCIRC）流体动力学模型。ADCIRC是一个有限元模型求解时间？依赖，自由表面循环和运输问题在两个？第三个呢尺寸.该地区现有的有限元网格将进一步发展，以提供前所未有的分辨率和物理细节，包括沿海河流和泻湖，潮汐小溪，大西洋沿岸水道和潮汐淹没沼泽的详细覆盖。准确模拟该区域潮汐动力学以及飓风风暴潮的能力，将与最近和正在进行的利用不连续Galerkin方法开发ADCIRC模型传输能力的工作相结合。这三个关键组成部分的整合和进一步发展，即，高分辨率的有限元网格，精确模拟潮汐和风暴潮动力学的能力，以及鲁棒的质量守恒传输算法，将提供一个强大的计算工具，用于模拟深水地平线石油泄漏沿着美国东海岸的传输趋势。深水地平线石油泄漏始于4月20日，2010年，由于油井井喷，导致位于路易斯安那州海岸东南40英里处的深水地平线海上钻井平台发生爆炸。与深水地平线石油泄漏有关的一个主要和直接的问题是浮油到达环流的可能性？一股温暖的洋流，通过尤卡坦海峡向北流入墨西哥湾，然后通过佛罗里达海峡向东流出，继续沿着佛罗里达的东海岸向北流动成为墨西哥湾流。进入环流的石油最终会被输送到遥远的大西洋，在那里与墨西哥湾流西部边缘分离的大规模漩涡的存在有可能将石油带到美国东海岸。在即将到来的大西洋飓风季节期间可能发生的石油运输问题也令人担忧，美国国家海洋和大气管理局预测这将是一个严重的飓风季节。从活跃到极度活跃？飓风季向美国东海岸运输石油？通过到达环流或从飓风开始？这显然会对沿海环境产生重大不利影响，严重破坏作为鱼类和野生动物重要栖息地的海滩和沿海湿地。本提案的主要目的是提供一种计算工具，用于帮助分析和评估美国东海岸（包括佛罗里达、格鲁吉亚和两个南卡罗来纳州）深水地平线漏油沿着可能造成的损害。具体而言，漏油残留物（例如，将对墨西哥湾流漩涡中夹带并向美国东海岸输送的焦油球（tarballs）进行建模，沿着大陆架并进入大西洋沿岸内水道和河口系统。将利用现有的数据来源进行模拟，以最终确定特别容易接收运输石油的地区和可能的沉积地区。 该模型和结果也将转移到墨西哥湾的其他地区。

The main goal of this research is to further develop, apply, and analyze a computational tool that can be used to examine the transport tendencies along the U.S. East Coast including Florida, Georgia, and both Carolinas as they relate to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. The central piece of this computational tool will be the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model. ADCIRC is a finite element model for solving time?dependent, free surface circulation and transport problems in two? and three?dimensions. Existing finite element meshes of the region will be further developed to provide an unprecedented level of resolution and physical detail, including detailed coverage of coastal rivers and lagoons, tidal creeks, the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway, and tidally flooded marshes. The ability to accurately simulate the tidal dynamics of this region, as well as hurricane storm surge, will be coupled with recent and ongoing development of the transport capabilities of the ADCIRC model using discontinuous Galerkin methods. The integration and further development of these three key components, i.e., the high-resolution finite element meshes, the ability to accurately simulate tidal and storm surge dynamics, and robust, mass-conserving transport algorithms, will provide a powerful computational tool that will be used to simulate the transport tendencies of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill along the U.S. East Coast.The Deepwater Horizon oil spill began on April 20, 2010 as a result of an oil well blowout that caused an explosion on the Deepwater Horizon offshore drilling platform located forty miles southeast off the Louisiana coast. A major and immediate concern related to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill is the possibility of the oil slick reaching the Loop Current ? a warm ocean current that enters the Gulf of Mexico flowing northward through the Yucatan Strait and that exits flowing east through the Florida Straits continuing northward along the east coast of Florida as the Gulf Stream. Oil entering the Loop Current would eventually be transported far afield to the Atlantic Ocean where the presence of large-scale eddies that separate from the western edge of the Gulf Stream have the potential to carry oil toward the U.S. East Coast. There is additional concern regarding the transport of oil that may occur during the upcoming Atlantic Hurricane Season, which has been forecasted by NOAA to be an ?active to extremely active? hurricane season. The transport of oil towards the U.S. East Coast ? by means of reaching the Loop Current or from the onset of a hurricane ? would obviously have a major detrimental impact on the coastal environment, severely damaging their beaches and coastal wetlands, which serve as critical habitats to the fish and wildlife. The primary objective of this proposal is to provide a computational tool that will be used to help analyze and assess possible damage from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill along the U.S. East Coast including Florida, Georgia, and both Carolinas.Specifically, the fate and transport of oil spill remnants (e.g., tarballs) entrained in Gulf Stream eddies and feeding the U.S. East Coast will be modeled along the shelf and into the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway and estuarine systems. Using available data sources, simulations will be performed to ultimately identify areas especially susceptible to receiving transported oil and likely areas of deposition. The model and results will also be transferable to other regions of the Gulf of Mexico.