SBIR Phase I: OpIndex: A Dynamic Index of Consumer Opinions

SBIR 第一阶段：OpIndex：消费者意见动态指数

• 批准号: 1046860
• 负责人: Peyman Faratin
• 金额: $ 15万
• 依托单位: Market Design
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-01-01 至 2011-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1046860&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: SBIR; Phase; OpIndex; Dynamic; Index

This Small Business Innovation Research Phase I project concentrates on the opportunities that exist in organizing consumers' opinions, unstructured information that makes up a significant portion of Internet content. Organizing this information will lead to efficiency gains in current markets and will enable emerging ones. This proposal integrates prediction markets and casual games to generate a structured, non ad-hoc and dynamic index of consumers' true opinions on a large scale. Prediction markets are explicitly designed mechanisms where consumers are given incentives to reveal their opinions truthfully through trading games. However, historically prediction markets have not scaled. Casual games are informal problem-solving mechanisms that have been shown to scale massively through Internet and mobile devices. However, casual games are ad hoc and do not induce a coordinated purposeful dataset. The intellectual merit of the proposed research lies in integrating these two mechanisms and applying the result to the commercial enterprise. The broader impacts of this research are the ability to (1) provision the collective's opinions on a larger scale by lowering barriers for mass participation in a complex mechanism, that in turn (2) decrease uncertainty and increase confidence in the quality of the information, (3) create greater efficiency in current decision-making processes, (4) enable new markets to emerge given the reduced information asymmetries, and (5) have spill-over benefits to many industrial sectors. The integrative approach is a novel contribution to software design methodologies for emerging social computing platforms, where the architecture is increasingly based on participation and less on monolithic designs. The proposed research will contribute to development of the internal logic of the prediction market itself, through better reward structure and lower transaction costs. If successfully deployed, the approach will enable lower-cost engagement for online research geared toward assessing consumer engagement and trends.

这个小企业创新研究第一阶段项目集中在组织消费者的意见，非结构化的信息，构成了互联网内容的重要组成部分存在的机会。整理这些信息将提高当前市场的效率，并将促进新兴市场的发展。该建议将预测市场和休闲游戏相结合，以产生一个结构化的，非特设的和动态的消费者的真实意见的大规模指数。预测市场是一种明确设计的机制，消费者通过交易游戏获得激励，如实地表达自己的观点。然而，从历史上看，预测市场并没有规模化。休闲游戏是一种非正式的解决问题的机制，已经被证明可以通过互联网和移动的设备大规模地扩展。然而，休闲游戏是特别的，并不诱导一个协调的有目的的数据集。建议的研究的智力价值在于整合这两种机制，并将结果应用于商业企业。这项研究的更广泛的影响是：（1）通过降低复杂机制中群众参与的障碍，在更大范围内提供集体意见的能力，这反过来又（2）减少不确定性，增加对信息质量的信心，（3）提高当前决策过程的效率，（4）在减少信息不对称的情况下，使新市场出现，（5）对许多工业部门具有溢出效益。集成的方法是一个新的贡献，软件设计方法的新兴社会计算平台，其中的架构越来越多地基于参与和单片设计少。 本文的研究将有助于通过更好的报酬结构和更低的交易成本来发展预测市场本身的内在逻辑。 如果成功部署，该方法将使面向评估消费者参与和趋势的在线研究的成本更低。